Nothing wrong with Okudah at 3. Certainly not close to as bad as taking any TE in the top 10.
#3 is not the slot to take a CB. A CB has not been taken at #3 or higher in over 20 years. Okudah is not the bet CB prospect to come out in 20+ years, so it would be dumb to draft one so high. But the Lions are dumb so they will.
A TE being drafted in the top 10 has been done multiple times in the last 20 years. You can tell Hockenson was a wasted pick. Okudah would be a wasted pick at #3. Drop down and get another pick, I would accept it. I just can't at #3.
Post by badnews3123 on Feb 10, 2020 10:36:26 GMT -6
Every draft is different, if Okudah is the #3 player on the board and you don’t have a trade down worth it or there a big gap between him and the next guy, you take him.
There have been 3 CB’s that have gone at 4 or 5 in the past ten years. Denzel Ward, Jalen Ramsey, and Patrick Peterson. All 100% worth it.
A TE being drafted in the top 10 has been done multiple times in the last 20 years. You can tell Hockenson was a wasted pick. Okudah would be a wasted pick at #3. Drop down and get another pick, I would accept it. I just can't at #3.
Just because it has or hasn't been "done" doesn't really mean squat. How many of those TEs picked in the first 10 picks have panned out? Maybe Vernon Davis? And he was abysmal his first 3 years.
Post by goldenlions on Feb 10, 2020 12:46:25 GMT -6
You guys must have been the ones who stupidly wanted Hockenson last year. There is a reason with all the great CB that the NFL has seen in the last 20 years that you don't draft one that high.
Not splitting hairs, but CB has been a position that takes time to get it in the NFL. And we need an impact player from day one at #3 or you trade down. I don't care if #5 is just 2 spots down and they draft him there. And I would be fine with it at #5 with another pick thrown in. But I can not, will not accept it at #3 OA. It would be the dumbest thing the Lions could do. The value at #3 on a CB is just not there. The Lions would be just the organization dumb enough to draft a CB at #3.
The only choice is Young falls to #3 or you trade down. Anything else is a complete failure by the Lions.
You guys must have been the ones who stupidly wanted Hockenson last year. There is a reason with all the great CB that the NFL has seen in the last 20 years that you don't draft one that high.
Not splitting hairs, but CB has been a position that takes time to get it in the NFL. And we need an impact player from day one at #3 or you trade down. I don't care if #5 is just 2 spots down and they draft him there. And I would be fine with it at #5 with another pick thrown in. But I can not, will not accept it at #3 OA. It would be the dumbest thing the Lions could do. The value at #3 on a CB is just not there. The Lions would be just the organization dumb enough to draft a CB at #3.
The only choice is Young falls to #3 or you trade down. Anything else is a complete failure by the Lions.
Picking Hock was a waste. He is soft and will be injury prone. Didn't like it then, don't like it now.
I do agree with you about the corner, not many come in and are studs right away. It took Slay until about season 3 to be really good.
Post by badnews3123 on Feb 10, 2020 13:41:25 GMT -6
What if neither is an option?
Exactly. So who is ok at #3? And why is there this massive difference between pick 3 and pick 5?
I get the wanting to trade down thing, but if 3 is the spot I don’t understand why Okudah is off the table. I feel like people way overthink draft stuff. Take the best players.
Post by goldenlions on Feb 10, 2020 23:23:16 GMT -6
Value in the draft dictates at #3 overall, you take the best QB, DL (preferably DE) or OT in the draft. It is not a given but I think the best QB is taken #1 and the best DE is taken #2. Now if #2 QB or #2 DE is of more value than the #1 OT, then you take them. It is too early to justify anyone not named Burrows or Young at #3, because I haven't seen enough of some of the other prospects, but I have watched enough OSU games to know that Okudah should not be #3 overall.
At this point and it is subject to change after combine and prodays, I would take Tua or Brown before drafting Okudah at #3. But personally anything short of a Young or a trade down will be disappointing.
Now I saw a mock that the Lions trade down with Miami and pick up one of their first rounders and Lions select Okudah and Chaisson. I would be fully erect if that happened!
Kinda tired of this Hockenson was a stupid pick stuff...TE is hugely important...
I mean, thr top 2 TEs in the NFL were in the superbowl...best TE before this year, Gronk, look at the Pats before and after...some other playoff TEs Kittle Kelce Graham Cooks Andrews Ertz Rudolph Witten
I dont think its any coincidence that the best teams have the best TEs, so can you please stop with this stupid pick nonsense....if he busts itll be a bad pick, but until then, it makes sense...
Post by goldenlions on Feb 11, 2020 0:57:50 GMT -6
On the surface it looks like a terrible pick. Aside from the first game, he was ineffective in his first season, oft injured.
Of course TE is important, but the Lions had other needs they could have addressed with that pick. I didn't get the sense that Hock made the offense better. Time will tell, but I don't have a good feeling about him.
The Hockenson pick was bullshit. He is a second round talent taken way too early. He will never be an elite TE, he is average, seems slow mentally, solid physically, but I don't see more than that. I hope I am wrong, but this is not Shannon Sharpe, more like Todd Heap who's best year was like 800 yards, maybe he had a pro bowl or two, but nothing to write home about and def not that high. We needed a major blocker on the O line or a DE or anywhere else but TE. I hate that pick. almost lost me. If they do something stupid again, fuck it. They never learn.
Kinda tired of this Hockenson was a stupid pick stuff...TE is hugely important...
I mean, thr top 2 TEs in the NFL were in the superbowl...best TE before this year, Gronk, look at the Pats before and after...some other playoff TEs Kittle Kelce Graham Cook Andrews Ertz Rudolph Witten
I dont think its any coincidence that the best teams have the best TEs, so can you please stop with this stupid pick nonsense....if he busts itll be a bad pick, but until then, it makes sense...
And how many of those TEs were picked in the first round let alone TOP TEN? (I'll give you a hint - it starts with "Z" and ends with "O".)
Even if Hockenson turns into a good pro (and he may) it still wasn't a smart pick. There were other players available there at that pick that potentially could have made more of an impact and if they really wanted a TE they still could have drafted Irv Smith in the 2nd. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up having a better career than Hockenson.
Todd Heap is a good comparison, but I always said Dallas Clark. Both had nice careers but I don't think anyone would agree their careers would have been worthy of a top 10 pick.
Value in the draft dictates at #3 overall, you take the best QB, DL (preferably DE) or OT in the draft. It is not a given but I think the best QB is taken #1 and the best DE is taken #2. Now if #2 QB or #2 DE is of more value than the #1 OT, then you take them. It is too early to justify anyone not named Burrows or Young at #3, because I haven't seen enough of some of the other prospects, but I have watched enough OSU games to know that Okudah should not be #3 overall.
At this point and it is subject to change after combine and prodays, I would take Tua or Brown before drafting Okudah at #3. But personally anything short of a Young or a trade down will be disappointing.
Now I saw a mock that the Lions trade down with Miami and pick up one of their first rounders and Lions select Okudah and Chaisson. I would be fully erect if that happened!
You can make a very good argument that Okudah is the 3rd best player in the draft. I think you can make an argument that he’s the 2nd, because I think Burrow and Tua are good prospects but being overrated a bit.
Post by badnews3123 on Feb 11, 2020 10:49:08 GMT -6
Hockenson going top 10 is relative to the draft you’re in. We’ll see how guys like Ed Oliver and Devin Bush turn out in long run, though I think neither fit what Patricia wants, especially Bush. Same with Brian Burns who I wanted.
Hockenson going top 10 is relative to the draft you’re in. We’ll see how guys like Ed Oliver and Devin Bush turn out in long run, though I think neither fit what Patricia wants, especially Bush. Same with Brian Burns who I wanted.
Jonah Williams was the guy I would have taken. Obviously jury still out on him being injured and missing his entire rookie year, but even with that he contributed to his team almost as much as Hockenson did to his.
Hockenson going top 10 is relative to the draft you’re in. We’ll see how guys like Ed Oliver and Devin Bush turn out in long run, though I think neither fit what Patricia wants, especially Bush. Same with Brian Burns who I wanted.
Jonah Williams was the guy I would have taken. Obviously jury still out on him being injured and missing his entire rookie year, but even with that he contributed to his team almost as much as Hockenson did to his.
Besides that not being true. You would have been fine taking a top 10 and sitting him for a season?
You would have been fine taking a top 10 and sitting him for a season?
Well, obviously at the time I would have taken him in the draft I didn't know he would miss the entire year. But that said if you're asking me if at this point in time I would rather have Hockenson or Williams I'll take Williams. And I still would have Irv Smith instead of Tavai (not to mention I never would have signed Jesse James).
And if Jonah Williams is drafted by a different team, maybe he doesn't even get injured?
You would have been fine taking a top 10 and sitting him for a season?
Well, obviously at the time I would have taken him in the draft I didn't know he would miss the entire year. But that said if you're asking me if at this point in time I would rather have Hockenson or Williams I'll take Williams. And I still would have Irv Smith instead of Tavai (not to mention I never would have signed Jesse James).
And if Jonah Williams is drafted by a different team, maybe he doesn't even get injured?
I’m not even talking about the injury. He wasn’t taking Deckers spot and they weren’t cutting Wagner, so Williams is not playing last season.
I’m not even talking about the injury. He wasn’t taking Deckers spot and they weren’t cutting Wagner, so Williams is not playing last season.
Oh, gotcha. Not sure I agree with that though. Probably he's not a regular starter but it wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility that he unseats Wagner at some point during the season. Some also had him projected as a guard so given that there were 984 snaps not given to Decker, Ragnow, Glasgow, Dahl or Wagner, isn't there a pretty good chance Williams gets a decent amount of action? Even if you want to say he couldn't play guard, Crosby got 397 snaps at tackle.
So yes, I would have been fine with that.
Last Edit: Feb 11, 2020 13:20:34 GMT -6 by Blaming Brad
I’m not even talking about the injury. He wasn’t taking Deckers spot and they weren’t cutting Wagner, so Williams is not playing last season.
Oh, gotcha. Not sure I agree with that though. Probably he's not a regular starter but it wouldn't have been out of the realm of possibility that he unseats Wagner at some point during the season. Some also had him projected as a guard so given that there were 984 snaps not given to Decker, Ragnow, Glasgow, Dahl or Wagner, isn't there a pretty good change Williams get a decent amount of action? Even if you want to say he couldn't play guard, Crosby got 397 snaps at tackle.
So yes, I would have been fine with that.
We’re back into the positional value conversation that people seem to be so worked up about if you’re playing him at G, which is also a bit of reach to me. Take a guy top 10 and play him at a spot he hasn’t played.
And he’s not taking Wagner’s spot and while Wagner got injured and missed some time, you don’t foresee that when making the pick. So you’re still making that pick with the idea that Williams is likely not playing in his first season. Which is fine, I actually like Williams a lot, but I have a hard time believing it would be swallowed so easily as it seems to be in hindsight. Especially since one of the biggest arguments against Hockenson I’ve seen is that TE’s don’t produce enough in year 1.
Last Edit: Feb 11, 2020 12:54:12 GMT -6 by badnews3123
I can see the logic and I do like Williams, but I’d have some concern with 3 OL in 1st out of 4 years plus a high priced FA vs results. You’d need a top 5 at worst OL group to justify that kind of investment. I’m also not sure that a top 5 OL is that much better for success than a middle of the pack.
Then while I like Williams you have to take into play you’re taking him top 10(15 if a trade down), to play a position there’s no film on. I’d imagine could be thoughts of moving him to RT next year and let Wagner go. Still a lot of projection.
I was about to post pretty much the same thing. I think Williams is the safest player in the draft. I could get on board with playing him at guard for a year and then take over for Wagner in 2020. He would also give depth if Decker or Wagner get hurt this year (and let's face it, chances are at least one of them will). But yeah, "3 OL in 1st out of 4 years plus a high priced FA vs results."
Post by badnews3123 on Feb 11, 2020 13:50:50 GMT -6
I find it interesting how against you were Hockenson and a large part of it was lack of first year production from TE’s, but we’re ok with taking Williams and having him basically be depth or starting at a position he never played before, and that position being one that is low on “positional value”. I also don’t think Williams has much of an impact regardless last year. In the end, I’m not sure they passed on a guy at a 8 that would have done much to swing things on either side of the ball.
I’ll be interested to see how Williams turns out. Bengals have not been strong in developing OL lately.
Last Edit: Feb 11, 2020 13:52:33 GMT -6 by badnews3123