Early Draft Part Deux

[thedane]

Without trades...

1. Okudah
2. Taylor
3a  Chase Claypool
3b  Jordan Elliot
4.  Nick Coe
5a  Trey Adams
5b  Jeremy Chinn
6.  Calvin Throckmorton
7.  TreVour Wallace-Simms

[goldenlions]

I like your mock, although other than the first two, most seem to be projected a little higher than you have them being picked at. But projections can't be perceived as reality.

[badnews3123]

1. Okudah CB
2. Ross Blaclock DT
3. KJ Hill WR
3. Robert Hunt G
4. Bradlee Anae DE
5. Quintez Cephus WR
5. JR Reed S
6. Ke’Shawn Vaughn RB
7. Evan Weaver LB

[thedane]

Mar 24, 2020 21:57:07 GMT -6 goldenlions said:

I like your mock, although other than the first two, most seem to be projected a little higher than you have them being picked at. But projections can't be perceived as reality.

Yeah, I tried to "average" thru a couple sites that I feel have been pretty legit in the past. I think Claypool could be there, in my first draft I had us taking him with our pick in the second. That was before all the juniors came out, which made this draft class pretty deep. I think his hype and Chinn from the combine could put them up in line, but that might just be the initial hype. I was more than aware of both of them before and with the underclassmen all in I think it could play out. Chinn probably goes sooner, could probably flip him for Coe. I think Coe has the ability to be a Hand type pick, off the charts one year and pedestrian the next. Trey Adams is a guy I would pick in the 5th just because if he's healthy he's a steal. If not, take him anyway and stash him on IR. 

We have a chance to really upgrade this roster esp if they trade down, but those first 4 picks in a draft deep at our positions of need should be a layup.

[TRUMP]

I think they’ll take Simmons before Okuda

[thedane]

Mar 25, 2020 22:58:38 GMT -6 TRUMP said:

I think they’ll take Simmons before Okuda

I believe it's a need matches talent situation. I consider our #2 CB to be a void right now, picking up Collins should go a long way to legitimize an under performing LB unit. On a need basis I would actually go Brown over Simmons as well. Simmons has shown difficulty taking on blocks, I don't think that will get better going against better competition.

[badnews3123]

Simmons is a tough fit in this system to begin with. Tougher now with some moves they made.

[Blaming Brad]

Unless Young is there, or they plan to take Tua, they REALLY need to trade down.

[thedane]

I don't think anyone would disagree with that. If there is a trade I do think that people are already way over valuing what their take might be.

[badnews3123]

Best case scenario they’re able to convince Miami to give #26 or #20 from Jax. More likely they’re getting a 2nd from Miami or SD.

[stuckincheeseland]

1 Simmons olb clemson
2 Taylor rb wisconsin
3a Hall cb virginia
3b Peart ot uconn
4 Hightower wr boise st
5a Daniels DT nebraska
5b Cole SS miss st
6 Gordon qb was st
7 Cabral og az st

[goldenlions]

Mar 26, 2020 15:53:24 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

Best case scenario they’re able to convince Miami to give #26 or #20 from Jax. More likely they’re getting a 2nd from Miami or SD.

At this point, I don't see how they could get even a second round pick by dropping a few spots.

I think best case scenario is a 3rd rounder to switch places with Miami.

I just don't believe there is a market for players and everyone in the top 6 can easily stay put and still get a good player.  If anything someone in the teens might fall in love and overpay, but I wouldn't bank on it.

[thedane]

That's my fear, that there simply isn't any value for making trades. That said Vegas has their odds favoring Tua going #3.

[badnews3123]

A 3rd would be below the value chart. At that point, hold a hard line and take the guy you want. Historically that would likely be the worst return on a first round trade in history.

[Blaming Brad]

Probably the best recent comparison is 2018 when the Jets moved up from #6 to #3 to take Darnold. They got the Colts' first round pick (#6), 2nd round pick (#37), 2nd round pick (#49) & 2019 2nd round pick.

No way the Lions are getting that much from Miami. That situation was also a little different with QB needy Denver picking #5. And there was also Cleveland at #4 who also had the #1 pick and took Mayfield so there was some speculation Cleveland could trade down.

[badnews3123]

Chicago gave up 2 3rd’s and 4th to go up one spot for Trubisky.

If the best offer is a 3rd for a guy most think is a better prospect than D’Arnold and Trubisky then Bob needs to work on his negotiating skills.

[badnews3123]

I also still think there’s a chance it’s Washington that may move out of the offer is good. They’re sitting there with no second round pick and a rebuilding team. Matter of how in love they are with Young.

[Blaming Brad]

Young is there, Jacksonville offers #9, #20 & #42...what do you do?

[badnews3123]

Mar 27, 2020 9:40:17 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Young is there, Jacksonville offers #9, #20 & #42...what do you do?

That’s tough. I generally think people overvalue picks, and I think Young and Okudah are both elite guys, but I also think there’s a lot of talent in that late 1st to start of 3rd.

Take it and maybe use that 2nd to move up and grab Okudah if he falls past 5 or 6.

[Blaming Brad]

Mar 27, 2020 10:27:44 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I generally think people overvalue picks

I agree that people overvalue picks in the sense that you have less than a 50% chance of hitting on one even in the first 50 picks, but on the other side of it if you can collect more picks it also increases your chances of getting a "hit".

[badnews3123]

Mar 27, 2020 11:17:35 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Mar 27, 2020 10:27:44 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I generally think people overvalue picks

I agree that people overvalue picks in the sense that you have less than a 50% chance of hitting on one even in the first 50 picks, but on the other side of it if you can collect more picks it also increases your chances of getting a "hit".

I don’t always buy into that because I think part of the “hit” depends on who is making the picks. Some factors in there that go beyond the talent of the players.

That would be a tough scenario, though. Wouldn’t want to have to make that decision.

[thedane]

You take it.

[thedane]

One for one.

[Vic]

Could have been worse

[goldenlions]

Apr 23, 2020 18:43:47 GMT -6 thedane said:

One for one.

I think you might go 2 for 2