Post by Blaming Brad on Oct 9, 2022 19:19:44 GMT -6
I know we can blame Glenn for the defense. I know we can blame Ben Johnson for the offense (at least this last game). But DC is the one who hired these guys and collaborates the game plan. America fell in love with MC/DC after Hard Knocks, but I can't help but think about Cousin Sal talking about how the coaches came off as (in his words) "dumb."
I love MC/DC but this is starting to feel like Jim Schwartz all over again. But sadly, a poor man's Jim Schwartz. I know Felix gets his panties in a wad when I bring it up, but I can't get that Hard Knocks scene out of my mind of DC shaking off the "soil" of the franchise and he's done nothing to cleanse it (if anything he's added to it).
I know several Patriots fans and they were all blown away at how poorly coached this Lions team is.
Dont get me wrong, the pants thing was cheesy as fuck, just not something worth fixating on to me...
I dont know who cousin sal is, but then again, i dont really care. I dont really care what any talking head says to be honest with you. They are paid for hot takes and love to stir up shit to get ratings.
I said as soon as they were hired that we wouldnt see the results until year 3 and i see no reason to think differeny now. I think weve seen an Offense perform above expectations and a Defense perform below expectation. But i called it in the offseason, the DTs and LBs havent really been addressed so i didnt expect that much of an improvement. It really shouldnt be that surprising....
That Patriots team is pretty darn good. That is the prototype Bilichek roster. To be fair, the Lions roster right now is depleted. The interior OL got absolutely destroyed up front. Again you are missing your starting OGs. At WR your down to one starter. St. Brown was obviously seriously limited. Floppenson was shut down by safety and had major issues in blocking again. The Pats took him away and he could not get open versus the man coverage. I heard the word bust thrown around, but let's just say he has seriously underperformed for his pay rate and draft position. Goff was under duress all day long. Decker and Sewell also both gave up sacks.
On D, the secondary...wow. We were playing anyone we had back there. The DL was a non-factor in the pass rush. They had some nice run fits, but overall gave up too much on the ground. I will say the defense had some stops on third down and caused a few field goals versus TDs.
0-6 on 4th downs, you put your defense in some bad spots. Again you have an inexperienced coaching staff and you can tell. With the HC and coordinators. You have an inexperienced GM that has a roster that struggles to stay healthy and productive. I think more then anything that is what we are seeing. Youngest team in the NFL, rookie coaches and coordinators and a roster that is riddled with players that can't stay healthy.
Jackson played every snap. Not sure if the boo-boo finger hindered him.
I know DC made a change at half at OG. Honestly wasn't aware he was in there.
Bill Bilichek every year continues to find great defensive talent. I have not watched the Pat's play yet this year. They kicked the Lions ass up front.
Post by snowpiercer on Oct 10, 2022 8:46:54 GMT -6
I still stand by my 5 - 12 Won Loss prediction for this season.... However, I may have to amend the part where I said it would be "Entertaining"... This was an all-time "Ass Whuppin".. Coaches get fired for this kind of effort. DC makes Matt Rhule look like the second coming of the next Belichick, And Matt Rhule just might be the first Head Coach to be fired this year.
Jeff Risdon October 9, 2022 5:33 pm ET Sunday’s 29-0 shutout loss to the New England Patriots represented an epic failure on so many levels for the Detroit Lions. But there is one common denominator to all those levels.
Coaching.
Buy Lions Wire Dan Campbell was woefully outclassed by his Patriots counterparts. In and of itself, there is no shame in being outcoached by Bill Belichick. He’s in the argument for the best NFL coach of all time. However, Campbell’s crew made it way too easy for Belichick and the Patriots in this one.
If Belichick was playing chess, Campbell was breaking his Hungry Hungry Hippos game by slamming the handles way too hard and always at the wrong time to catch those pesky marbles.
Every single fourth-down failure, all six of them, was a simultaneous master class from Belichick and Campbell licking the frozen pole in the playground. If at first you don’t succeed, try again. Maybe after the third or fourth abject failure, stop trying the same darn thing. That lesson is one Campbell has yet to learn or embrace.
Yet the game was gone on the very first of those six failed fourth down attempts. It was vintage over-aggressive Campbell actively hurting his team with a poor decision and an even worse play call.
The scene: 4th-and-1 from the Detroit 45-yard line. The Lions bring in an extra lineman as a blocker and aligned in a tight formation. It’s an obvious interior run to Jamaal Williams based on formation, down/distance and tendency. New England shifts into a 9-man box and easily blows through the Lions line to get the stop. Right guard Logan Stenberg, mysteriously back in the starting lineup after being benched for two weeks for inept play, chooses the wrong side of the gap to block.
It’s the first drive of the game. New England is starting a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Instead of relying on Pro Bowl punter Jack Fox to pin the Patriots deep in the shadow of their own goalposts, Campbell opts to set them up in Lions territory. That’s a completely unnecessary risk at that point in the game. Zappe leads the Patriots to a confidence-building field goal when the Lions defense nicely holds up on third down in the red zone.
Now look at it from the Patriots’ point of view. They clearly fed off the Lions’ failure:
These are the kind of tactical errors Campbell cannot keep making. He needs to account for the potential of failure. There’s a line between being ambitiously aggressive and being reckless. This line appears invisible to Campbell after five weeks of 2022.
Perhaps the past success of being overly aggressive on some fourth downs has emboldened Campbell. It has at least clouded his in-game judgment. The defenses have figured out what’s coming. Campbell, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and QB Jared Goff have collectively failed to adjust.
I wrote about another example in the postgame takeaways,
Midway through the third quarter, 4th-and-2 from the Patriots’ 34-yard line. Jared Goff rushes the snap count to try and catch the Patriots flat-footed. But the Patriots baited Goff expertly here. Knowing Goff would look for Amon-Ra St. Brown, they feigned a little off-coverage on No. 14. But the Patriots quickly just abandoned covering the outside option and had two defenders closing on St. Brown before he caught the ball — on a zero-yard route that required run-after-catch to succeed.
Everyone knows Goff will default to the easier, shorter route there. Campbell and Johnson have to know that too, but they’re not showing any ability to counter the other team’s adjustments.
When Campbell stands at the postgame podium and declares, “That’s 100 percent on me,” he’s 100 percent correct. That doesn’t make it acceptable though.
Campbell refused to even try a field goal, makeable ones based on new kicker Michael Badgley’s history. There were opportunities to put points on the board early, to cut the lead and maybe build a little momentum. Campbell seems too enamored with trying to make up a 13-point deficit on one play. This keeps happening and it needs to stop.
The bye week is a perfect opportunity for Campbell to self-scout. It needs to be a collective and thorough examination by the assistants and the front office too. It’s way too early to call for heads; the collective talent level isn’t good enough to justify change for change’s sake on the coaching staff.
However, this is a time when Campbell and his coaching staff need to collectively show real improvement coming out of the bye to prove they can be the long-term fixtures so many Lions fans, players and management want them to be. Right now, Campbell has not helped himself prove it.
While I do like tbe agressiveness, i agree it needs to be reigned in. I think we are at a point now where the failures of the aggressiveness are affecting the mentality of the team. Its like ever since the aggressiveness lost the vikes game there has been a tailspin that has been gaining momentum by the week.
Its a good time for a break and maybe the season can be salvaged...but if the coaching continues like this, campbell may have spoken too soon about rock bottom...
Post by badnews3123 on Oct 10, 2022 10:37:01 GMT -6
The 4th and 9 was brutal, I hated that one. I had less of an issue with the other ones. One of my biggest issues and it’s carried over the last couple weeks, is the play calls in those situations. How much of that is Johnson and how much is Goff’s decision, I don’t know. But there’s been some shit play calls in vital situations.
This isn't pop warner or high school. Play the percentages.
Other than the 4th & 9, the percentages probably said to go for it. Like badnews said, the 4th & 9 was the only one I didn't agree with. I had a much bigger issue with the fact that they DIDN'T CONVERT A SINGLE ONE. How do you not even luck into converting one of them?
This isn't pop warner or high school. Play the percentages.
Other than the 4th & 9, the percentages probably said to go for it. Like badnews said, the 4th & 9 was the only one I didn't agree with. I had a much bigger issue with the fact that they DIDN'T CONVERT A SINGLE ONE. How do you not even luck into converting one of them?
I am also referring to the other attempts besides the NE game so far this season. Also the darn field goal attempt debacle. Just lots of weird decisions going on.
Post by badnews3123 on Oct 10, 2022 15:27:23 GMT -6
I’d say the majority of the 4th down attempts the numbers would say they’re the right call to go for it. The ones that they didn’t, seems like you could tell why because you saw the impact of not making it.
This isn't pop warner or high school. Play the percentages.
Granted, analytics aren't perfect, but it's aggressive.
An upper confidence bound algorithm on his converting 3rd and 4th down plays (including FGs) shows that short passes are the most rewarding choice the Lions can make, and running (basically anywhere) falls in 2nd-4th. When you include FGs they fall so low you may as well throw the ball deep.
The 4th and 9 choice was probably more desperate than aggressive. In general though, I think the play calling is fine.
This isn't pop warner or high school. Play the percentages.
Granted, analytics aren't perfect, but it's aggressive.
An upper confidence bound algorithm on his converting 3rd and 4th down plays (including FGs) shows that short passes are the most rewarding choice the Lions can make, and running (basically anywhere) falls in 2nd-4th. When you include FGs they fall so low you may as well throw the ball deep.
The 4th and 9 choice was probably more desperate than aggressive. In general though, I think the play calling is fine.
I should further elaborate, not having a qualified kicker and forcing some of these 4th down attempts. Again is desperation because you are unable to get needed points and 4th downs are a high risk proposition. If the conversion fails you are giving the opponent favorable field position while having the worst defense in the NFL.
Granted, analytics aren't perfect, but it's aggressive.
An upper confidence bound algorithm on his converting 3rd and 4th down plays (including FGs) shows that short passes are the most rewarding choice the Lions can make, and running (basically anywhere) falls in 2nd-4th. When you include FGs they fall so low you may as well throw the ball deep.
The 4th and 9 choice was probably more desperate than aggressive. In general though, I think the play calling is fine.
I should further elaborate, not having a qualified kicker and forcing some of these 4th down attempts. Again is desperation because you are unable to get needed points and 4th downs are a high risk proposition. If the conversion fails you are giving the opponent favorable field position while having the worst defense in the NFL.
Generally speaking, I'd definitely defer to you guys around here. I've been lurking long enough to trust you guys more than me and my models. Especially since I'm the one who constructed the data set. However, looking at the stats from ESPN I sorta get where my Upper Confidence Bound model is coming from. The Lions have a nearly 50% conversion rate on 4th down. Ideally they'd avoid 4th altogether, but we're in the bottom half on 3rd down conversions.
We'd be punting the ball a lot and putting a lot of faith in our defense if we punted the ball every time we failed to convert on 3rd or 4th. A lot. I can't see the field position advantage mattering when it's that often. We may as well give short-yardage conversions a shot.
I forgot about FGs, but same point applies. We'd be kicking a lot of FGs too. A lot. It'd look great on the scoreboard I guess, but it'd also give other teams more time against our D.
I forgot about FGs, but same point applies. We'd be kicking a lot of FGs too. A lot. It'd look great on the scoreboard I guess, but it'd also give other teams more time against our D.
Also if you don’t have a reliable Kicker you’re giving up the same field position.
I hope Holmes has seen you may not need a major investment, but patch working the Kicker position doesn’t work either.