2019 Expectations?

[Funkytown]

Just saw this tweet:

It got me thinking ... what are your guys' expectations for this season? What would be a success/move in the right direction? 

[Blaming Brad]

I don't think they're one of the 5 worst but they're certainly bottom half to middle of the road. A good D-line can make you better than you look on paper.

[thedane]

8-8

[TRUMP]

13-3

[goldenlions]

Someone always goes from worst to first.

[liongeezer]

After watching film on Hockenson, he will make the Lions a lot better on offense than a normal TE. Hockenson has 4.5 40-yard field speed and is basically a large WR. I expect Hockenson will surprise everyone with 700 to 800 yards and 9 tds. Got great hands, we will be able to use him as a slot WR also. Love his blocking attitude which will translate to a better run game. I am really becoming a fan. Add in Jesse James and the TE position for the Lions could have 100 receptions and 1000 to 1200 yards receiving.

Bevell (I love this guy as OC, by the way) will use a quick passing game to get the ball out of Stafford's hands in hopefully 2.5 secs on average to negate pass rush of Bears and Vikings. It is the only way he can counter the weak pass protection provided by Wiggins, Aboushi, or Benzschawel (IOW whoever wins the other IOL). Bevell's repertoire of deep passes that he showed in Seattle will also surprise at times. I also believe Bevell will mostly use a Power Run Blocking scheme to take advantage of Aboushi or Benzschawel run blocking prowess. Would love to have 30 carries a game. If the Lions can average 24 points a game, we will win more games than we will lose.

The Lions defense (After Harrison trade) in the second half of the 2018 season played very well and was top ten in yardage allowed. I hope the Lions defense can go to the next level and become top five in yardage allowed/game this year. I do believe my thinking here is reasonably. Again we should win more games than we lose.

Based on the above, I think 10 wins and 6 losses (with a wild card) is attainable.

[Honolulublue]

9-7, but if we are bottom five, the Ford's are gonna tell Patricia and Quinn major improvement the next year or they are gone.

[Honolulublue]

May 26, 2019 5:38:02 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

After watching film on Hockenson, he will make the Lions a lot better on offense than a normal TE. Hockenson has 4.5 40-yard field speed and is basically a large WR. I expect Hockenson will surprise everyone with 700 to 800 yards and 9 tds. Got great hands, we will be able to use him as a slot WR also. Love his blocking attitude which will translate to a better run game. I am really becoming a fan. Add in Jesse James and the TE position for the Lions could have 100 receptions and 1000 to 1200 yards receiving.

Bevell (I love this guy as OC, by the way) will use a quick passing game to get the ball out of Stafford's hands in hopefully 2.5 secs on average to negate pass rush of Bears and Vikings. It is the only way he can counter the weak pass protection provided by Wiggins, Aboushi, or Benzschawel (IOW whoever wins the other IOL). Bevell's repertoire of deep passes that he showed in Seattle will also surprise at times. I also believe Bevell will mostly use a Power Run Blocking scheme to take advantage of Aboushi or Benzschawel run blocking prowess. Would love to have 30 carries a game. If the Lions can average 24 points a game, we will win more games than we will lose.

The Lions defense (After Harrison trade) in the second half of the 2018 season played very well and was top ten in yardage allowed. I hope the Lions defense can go to the next level and become top five in yardage allowed/game this year. I do believe my thinking here is reasonably. Again we should win more games than we lose.

Based on the above, I think 10 wins and 6 losses (with a wild card) is attainable.

rookie TE's don't usually have big 1st seasons.

[liongeezer]

May 26, 2019 14:24:27 GMT -6 Honolulublue said:

May 26, 2019 5:38:02 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

After watching film on Hockenson, he will make the Lions a lot better on offense than a normal TE. Hockenson has 4.5 40-yard field speed and is basically a large WR. I expect Hockenson will surprise everyone with 700 to 800 yards and 9 tds. Got great hands, we will be able to use him as a slot WR also. Love his blocking attitude which will translate to a better run game. I am really becoming a fan. Add in Jesse James and the TE position for the Lions could have 100 receptions and 1000 to 1200 yards receiving.

Bevell (I love this guy as OC, by the way) will use a quick passing game to get the ball out of Stafford's hands in hopefully 2.5 secs on average to negate pass rush of Bears and Vikings. It is the only way he can counter the weak pass protection provided by Wiggins, Aboushi, or Benzschawel (IOW whoever wins the other IOL). Bevell's repertoire of deep passes that he showed in Seattle will also surprise at times. I also believe Bevell will mostly use a Power Run Blocking scheme to take advantage of Aboushi or Benzschawel run blocking prowess. Would love to have 30 carries a game. If the Lions can average 24 points a game, we will win more games than we will lose.

The Lions defense (After Harrison trade) in the second half of the 2018 season played very well and was top ten in yardage allowed. I hope the Lions defense can go to the next level and become top five in yardage allowed/game this year. I do believe my thinking here is reasonably. Again we should win more games than we lose.

Based on the above, I think 10 wins and 6 losses (with a wild card) is attainable.

rookie TE's don't usually have big 1st seasons.

I agree HB, but most TEs can't move like this guy.  At his size, with his speed, explosion, and agility, he is basically a mismatch for all LBs and most DBs.  He is in the Evan Engram category.  Give the guy 80 targets he will catch 75 percent of them. 

[Felix]

I'll be happy if he contributes in the run game in his rookie year...dont expect much in the pass game form a rookie

[Deleted]

The Offensive line still makes me very nervous. However Bevell likes to run, hopefully we can run....Stafford may flourish under a Offense that can run the ball. We will see. If no major injuries on the O Line.....I'm thinking 11-5, that would be a 5 game improvement

[Vic]

I agree with lionissleeping, that OL is a concern and Stafford struggles when under pressure. You have a new system coming in as well, there will be a learning curve. I don't expect much from Hock. His upper body strength is a concern in the blocking game and NFL linebackers will be able to cover him unlike college. We shall see if he has any impact.

I am optimistic about the defense

[thedane]

Actually, NFL LB's are going to have their hands full. Anyone see what former Hawkeye TE George Kittle did last season? Hockenson is slower but a better route runner and Stafford needs the bail out guy he was missing last year. Looking forward to watching it unfold.

[def]

It all depends on Stafford. Sometimes he is clutch. Sometimes he is dutch. At some point he might have a good year IF he does I guess 9 wins, if not, it will be a long year my friends! SALUT!

[badnews3123]

May 28, 2019 19:45:41 GMT -6 thedane said:

Actually, NFL LB's are going to have their hands full. Anyone see what former Hawkeye TE George Kittle did last season? Hockenson is slower but a better route runner and Stafford needs the bail out guy he was missing last year. Looking forward to watching it unfold.

And his agility and explosion numbers were as good or better than Kittle’s. Actually better than a lot of WR’s.

[Blaming Brad]

We shall see. The arrow is pointing toward him being a good player eventually but the odds are strongly against him in year one. I think I said in another thread, I see his ceiling in year one at about 40-50 receptions, 500-600 yards and maybe 5-6 TDs. Unfortunately by the time we really know what we have the current regime will be gone and it will be on to the next regime with a new offense (and probably new QB).

[badnews3123]

I say 55/700/7

[Blaming Brad]

May 29, 2019 17:13:55 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I say 55/700/7

I would take that but that is a stretch. That would be arguably one of the top 2-3 TE rookie seasons of all time.

[badnews3123]

May 29, 2019 17:23:09 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

May 29, 2019 17:13:55 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I say 55/700/7

I would take that but that is a stretch. That would be arguably one of the top 2-3 TE rookie seasons of all time.

I’m aware. It’s similar production to what Evan Engram had in an offense that I think featured him less than Hockenson will be featured this season. I think they’re going to build a lot of the passing game around him. You have two deep/contested catch guys on the outside in Golladay and Jones. I’d imagine they’re going to work a lot their short/intermediate passing game through him. He’s going to see a big share of the Golden Tate targets(120+ a year). He’s also the kind of target Stafford has liked through the years. He likes using his TE’s and underneath targets in hopes of opening up deep shot. Pettigrew’s rookie year he was on pace for 45/500/4 if he doesn’t blow his knee out.

It’s more about the volume I think he’ll see. I’d just be surprised to not see him get at least 5-6 targets a game. How well it will all work out for the offense as a whole, I have no idea. But I think when the seasons over, barring injury, he’ll have what is considered good numbers.

[Blaming Brad]

May 29, 2019 19:57:55 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

May 29, 2019 17:23:09 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

I would take that but that is a stretch. That would be arguably one of the top 2-3 TE rookie seasons of all time.

I’m aware. It’s similar production to what Evan Engram had in an offense that I think featured him less than Hockenson will be featured this season. I think they’re going to build a lot of the passing game around him. You have two deep/contested catch guys on the outside in Golladay and Jones. I’d imagine they’re going to work a lot their short/intermediate passing game through him. He’s going to see a big share of the Golden Tate targets(120+ a year). He’s also the kind of target Stafford has liked through the years. He likes using his TE’s and underneath targets in hopes of opening up deep shot. Pettigrew’s rookie year he was on pace for 45/500/4 if he doesn’t blow his knee out.

It’s more about the volume I think he’ll see. I’d just be surprised to not see him get at least 5-6 targets a game. How well it will all work out for the offense as a whole, I have no idea. But I think when the seasons over, barring injury, he’ll have what is considered good numbers.

Don't forget about James who they are paying TE1 money. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with more targets than Hockenson.

[badnews3123]

May 29, 2019 21:21:34 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

May 29, 2019 19:57:55 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I’m aware. It’s similar production to what Evan Engram had in an offense that I think featured him less than Hockenson will be featured this season. I think they’re going to build a lot of the passing game around him. You have two deep/contested catch guys on the outside in Golladay and Jones. I’d imagine they’re going to work a lot their short/intermediate passing game through him. He’s going to see a big share of the Golden Tate targets(120+ a year). He’s also the kind of target Stafford has liked through the years. He likes using his TE’s and underneath targets in hopes of opening up deep shot. Pettigrew’s rookie year he was on pace for 45/500/4 if he doesn’t blow his knee out.

It’s more about the volume I think he’ll see. I’d just be surprised to not see him get at least 5-6 targets a game. How well it will all work out for the offense as a whole, I have no idea. But I think when the seasons over, barring injury, he’ll have what is considered good numbers.

Don't forget about James who they are paying TE1 money. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with more targets than Hockenson.

I would. I don’t see him catching more than 30-35 passes. He’s nowhere near the receiving threat Hockenson is. And I don’t really consider his contract TE1 money. His average a year is 17th, he essentially signed a 2 year deal. I don’t see him being more than a blocking TE, with some bailout and red zone ability.

[Blaming Brad]

May 29, 2019 21:55:34 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I don’t see him being more than a blocking TE, with some bailout and red zone ability.

Yikes. I agree it's essentially a 2 year deal (with a much bigger cap hit next year), but it's definitely bad business if you give a TE that kind of money to be a blocker and bailout. And he's been an inconsistent blocker from what I've read and heard.

[badnews3123]

May 29, 2019 22:11:31 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

May 29, 2019 21:55:34 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I don’t see him being more than a blocking TE, with some bailout and red zone ability.

Yikes. I agree it's essentially a 2 year deal (with a much bigger cap hit next year), but it's definitely bad business if you give a TE that kind of money to be a blocker and bailout. And he's been an inconsistent blocker from what I've read and heard.

Different discussion whether it was a good signing or not, but drafting Hockenson no doubt shifted his role. Reality is they had the money and desperately needed depth, so is what it is. I’d be very surprised if he’s getting more targets than Hockenson.

And his cap hit next year is still 14th among TE’s and that’s without any new deals done.

[Funkytown]

Some "experts" think Detroit had a top 5 offseason - others think bottom 5. The heck? 

[Blaming Brad]

May 30, 2019 9:00:52 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

Some "experts" think Detroit had a top 5 offseason - others think bottom 5. The heck? 

That's why they play the games.