2019 should be make-or-break year for Matthew Stafford

[Blaming Brad]

I agree with most of this. This is essentially what I was saying in the other thread.

2019 should be make-or-break year for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford

[liongeezer]

Uhuh sure. Stafford averaged over 4600 yards passing each year for 8 years and has to prove his self. Ridiculous. How about the defense proving it self and only allow 17 points/game. Also, place the Lions at +15 on turnovers for the season. How about the OL only give up just 32 sacks this season, and pave the way for 125 rushing yards/game.

[badnews3123]

Sept 5, 2019 16:33:00 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

Uhuh sure. Stafford averaged over 4600 yards passing each year for 8 years and has to prove his self. Ridiculous. How about the defense proving it self and only allow 17 points/game. Also, place the Lions at +15 on turnovers for the season. How about the OL only give up just 32 sacks this season, and pave the way for 125 rushing yards/game.

With those numbers you’re putting out there are basically saying the D should be the best in the league. 17 points a game would have been a top 3 scoring D(they were a top 3 in ‘14).

+15 would have led the league in differential last season. They’ve been top 5 in differential a few times in last eight years. That’s also not a pure defensive stat, so not sure how that helps. Stafford has 16 turnovers last year, that’s too many. Even in ‘17 when I think he played fairly well he was responsible for 19 turnovers(Lions were still 5th in differential with a +10 in ‘17).

The OL gave up 23 sacks in ‘13 and they averaged 112 yards rushing a game. Stafford helped by playing like dogshit in second half of the season. Throwing 15 picks and 7 fumbles over final 9.

Listen Stafford has had some shitty hands dealt to him over his time here. He’s also played sub-par at times and blew some good opportunities. He’s been paid like a top 5 or 10 QB most of his time here and outside of ‘11 and the stretch from ‘15-‘17 he hasn’t put together play that matches that. I don’t know if I’d call this a make or break year, but he wasn’t good last year. I’ll give him benefit of the doubt because I think there were a lot of factors playing into it, including what was a pretty serious injury, but if he has another year like last year, the question has to be asked whether it’s best to move on. I’m not sure it happens though unless Lions are really bad next year, because I don’t see Patricia and Quinn getting the rope to start over with new QB. Unless Stafford is horrible and the major reason for Lions being terrible.

[liongeezer]

Sept 5, 2019 18:16:30 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

Sept 5, 2019 16:33:00 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

Uhuh sure. Stafford averaged over 4600 yards passing each year for 8 years and has to prove his self. Ridiculous. How about the defense proving it self and only allow 17 points/game. Also, place the Lions at +15 on turnovers for the season. How about the OL only give up just 32 sacks this season, and pave the way for 125 rushing yards/game.

With those numbers you’re putting out there are basically saying the D should be the best in the league. 17 points a game would have been a top 3 scoring D(they were a top 3 in ‘14).

+15 would have led the league in differential last season. They’ve been top 5 in differential a few times in last eight years. That’s also not a pure defensive stat, so not sure how that helps. Stafford has 16 turnovers last year, that’s too many. Even in ‘17 when I think he played fairly well he was responsible for 19 turnovers(Lions were still 5th in differential with a +10 in ‘17).

The OL gave up 23 sacks in ‘13 and they averaged 112 yards rushing a game. Stafford helped by playing like dogshit in second half of the season. Throwing 15 picks and 7 fumbles over final 9.

Listen Stafford has had some shitty hands dealt to him over his time here. He’s also played sub-par at times and blew some good opportunities. He’s been paid like a top 5 or 10 QB most of his time here and outside of ‘11 and the stretch from ‘15-‘17 he hasn’t put together play that matches that. I don’t know if I’d call this a make or break year, but he wasn’t good last year. I’ll give him benefit of the doubt because I think there were a lot of factors playing into it, including what was a pretty serious injury, but if he has another year like last year, the question has to be asked whether it’s best to move on. I’m not sure it happens though unless Lions are really bad next year, because I don’t see Patricia and Quinn getting the rope to start over with new QB. Unless Stafford is horrible and the major reason for Lions being terrible.

Exactly, once the OL, RBs, and Defense does their job, Stafford will be more than fine.  He will play like a top 5 QB.  

I find it interesting you bring up 2013's OL.  Scott Linehan instituted basically a quick pass policy with Stafford that year if I remember right.  Stafford was delivering the ball from snap to release on average in 2.5 seconds, and I believe this was the main reason for the reduction in sacks.  Mayhew did capture lightning that year drafting Warford in the 3rd round, add in Rob Sims (solid FA), accompanied by one of Raiola's best years run blocking, the Lions were ranked above average in all aspects for the OL. 

Lets talk about Jim Schwartz's teams being the most undisciplined and most penalized in the league and that was not Stafford fault, but it would continually put Stafford and the Offense in poor down and distance situations and bad field position.  Also, the 2013 Defense was giving up on average over 8 points a game in the 4th quarter alone and most of those games we had the lead beginning the 4th quarter.  I got the to the point where I really hated Cunningham's bend but don't break defense.  You are right Stafford was at fault for a lot of turnovers, but most of time was put in situations where he had to try to win the game with a last drive and failed miserably.

Last year Cooter was so predicable with his play calling that I could sit in my living room and call out run or pass by the given formation.  Cooter's play calling was horrible all year, add in the Tate trade, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson injuries, no TE outlets worth a shit, Blount on his last legs, and Stafford was basically using street treads for RBs and WRs.  So you can blame Stafford for everything sure, and say that it was his bad year.  I know better.

Stafford is the best QB the Lions ever had, and Detroit fans, the way they judge and bitch, don't deserve him.

[TechLion]

Stafford is a franchise quarterback for one reason and one reason only, he has the full support of the organization and a bunch of simple minded fans. Anyone could be a franchise QB if the team is not actively trying to replace him. Bottom line is that Stafford is NOT a game changer or an elite QB!!!! You have to understand that it's not Stafford's average NFL skill and mediocre ability to play QB that has been keeping the Lions down year after year. It's his ridiculous contract along with his average play that has destroyed the Lions chances to put together a well rounded team. A team can win 10 or more games with a player like Stafford but a team can not consistently win 10 or more games with a player like Stafford when he is killing the salary cap.

Why would anyone think this is a make or break year for him??? Stafford is not capable of living up to the money he is making! The Stafford experiment was a failure and nothing will ever change that.

[badnews3123]

Sept 6, 2019 6:45:14 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

Sept 5, 2019 18:16:30 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

With those numbers you’re putting out there are basically saying the D should be the best in the league. 17 points a game would have been a top 3 scoring D(they were a top 3 in ‘14).

+15 would have led the league in differential last season. They’ve been top 5 in differential a few times in last eight years. That’s also not a pure defensive stat, so not sure how that helps. Stafford has 16 turnovers last year, that’s too many. Even in ‘17 when I think he played fairly well he was responsible for 19 turnovers(Lions were still 5th in differential with a +10 in ‘17).

The OL gave up 23 sacks in ‘13 and they averaged 112 yards rushing a game. Stafford helped by playing like dogshit in second half of the season. Throwing 15 picks and 7 fumbles over final 9.

Listen Stafford has had some shitty hands dealt to him over his time here. He’s also played sub-par at times and blew some good opportunities. He’s been paid like a top 5 or 10 QB most of his time here and outside of ‘11 and the stretch from ‘15-‘17 he hasn’t put together play that matches that. I don’t know if I’d call this a make or break year, but he wasn’t good last year. I’ll give him benefit of the doubt because I think there were a lot of factors playing into it, including what was a pretty serious injury, but if he has another year like last year, the question has to be asked whether it’s best to move on. I’m not sure it happens though unless Lions are really bad next year, because I don’t see Patricia and Quinn getting the rope to start over with new QB. Unless Stafford is horrible and the major reason for Lions being terrible.

Exactly, once the OL, RBs, and Defense does their job, Stafford will be more than fine.  He will play like a top 5 QB.  

I find it interesting you bring up 2013's OL.  Scott Linehan instituted basically a quick pass policy with Stafford that year if I remember right.  Stafford was delivering the ball from snap to release on average in 2.5 seconds, and I believe this was the main reason for the reduction in sacks.  Mayhew did capture lightning that year drafting Warford in the 3rd round, add in Rob Sims (solid FA), accompanied by one of Raiola's best years run blocking, the Lions were ranked above average in all aspects for the OL. 

Lets talk about Jim Schwartz's teams being the most undisciplined and most penalized in the league and that was not Stafford fault, but it would continually put Stafford and the Offense in poor down and distance situations and bad field position.  Also, the 2013 Defense was giving up on average over 8 points a game in the 4th quarter alone and most of those games we had the lead beginning the 4th quarter.  I got the to the point where I really hated Cunningham's bend but don't break defense.  You are right Stafford was at fault for a lot of turnovers, but most of time was put in situations where he had to try to win the game with a last drive and failed miserably.

Last year Cooter was so predicable with his play calling that I could sit in my living room and call out run or pass by the given formation.  Cooter's play calling was horrible all year, add in the Tate trade, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson injuries, no TE outlets worth a shit, Blount on his last legs, and Stafford was basically using street treads for RBs and WRs.  So you can blame Stafford for everything sure, and say that it was his bad year.  I know better.

Stafford is the best QB the Lions ever had, and Detroit fans, the way they judge and bitch, don't deserve him.

There’s some truth here and some weak excuses. Like most things with Stafford, truth is somewhere in the middle.

[Blaming Brad]

Sept 5, 2019 16:33:00 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

Uhuh sure. Stafford averaged over 4600 yards passing each year for 8 years and has to prove his self. Ridiculous. How about the defense proving it self and only allow 17 points/game. Also, place the Lions at +15 on turnovers for the season. How about the OL only give up just 32 sacks this season, and pave the way for 125 rushing yards/game.

Even if all that happened and Stafford still played mediocre you'd still make excuses for him.

Stafford has the highest cap hit of any player in the NFL in 2019.
Stafford doesn't elevate the players around him.
Stafford is entering his 11th season and other than delusional homer Lions fans people are still wondering if he'll "figure it out".
IMO, I never felt Stafford had that desire to be great like the truly great ones do. I have also sensed a decrease in intensity the last 2-3 seasons. You also have to wonder what toll the trauma with his wife's health has taken on him.
Even I'll admit Stafford wasn't himself last season. Not sure if it was the back or the loss of weapons on offense, but I suspect he's officially been Lionized (props to him for making it almost 10 years, which is longer than most). I fear by week 5 we'll be begging for the 2018 Stafford.
Did I mention Stafford has the highest cap hit of any player in the NFL?

And using passing yards as a barometer makes no sense. Vinny Testaverde once led the league in passing yards during an abysmal 4-12 season and Mark Brunell did as well while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. When you're behind all the time, you tend to pass more and get more passing yards while the defense lays back. 

[Blaming Brad]

Sept 6, 2019 6:47:36 GMT -6 TechLion said:

Why would anyone think this is a make or break year for him???

It's exactly because of what you said - he has the support of the organization. Another season like last and that support might not be there, especially given his contract gets easier to walk away from after next year.

[goldenlions]

I don't think Tech even watches games anymore, just rehashes the hits from 2011.

Because anyone who follows the game knows that QBs that play are going to get paid, it's the economics of the NFL.  Is it right, who knows?  but I know I don't want the Lions to field some of the garbage QB out there like the corpse of Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, FitzMagic, Jameis Winston.  It would be nice to move on, but considering how the best young QBs in the game are being acquired nowadays might require the Lions to draft in the top 5 again which they haven't in almost 10 seasons and I think the Lions are not a terrible team that could get into that mix.


If the Lions are gonna suck for a QB, I hope it is next season. 

[liongeezer]

Sept 6, 2019 6:47:36 GMT -6 TechLion said:

Stafford is a franchise quarterback for one reason and one reason only, he has the full support of the organization and a bunch of simple minded fans. Anyone could be a franchise QB if the team is not actively trying to replace him. Bottom line is that Stafford is NOT a game changer or an elite QB!!!! You have to understand that it's not Stafford's average NFL skill and mediocre ability to play QB that has been keeping the Lions down year after year. It's his ridiculous contract along with his average play that has destroyed the Lions chances to put together a well rounded team. A team can win 10 or more games with a player like Stafford but a team can not consistently win 10 or more games with a player like Stafford when he is killing the salary cap.

Why would anyone think this is a make or break year for him??? Stafford is not capable of living up to the money he is making! The Stafford experiment was a failure and nothing will ever change that.

Oh boy!  Next blog will fire up piggy face thread.

[liongeezer]

Sept 6, 2019 9:45:07 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Sept 5, 2019 16:33:00 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

Uhuh sure. Stafford averaged over 4600 yards passing each year for 8 years and has to prove his self. Ridiculous. How about the defense proving it self and only allow 17 points/game. Also, place the Lions at +15 on turnovers for the season. How about the OL only give up just 32 sacks this season, and pave the way for 125 rushing yards/game.

Even if all that happened and Stafford still played mediocre you'd still make excuses for him.

And using passing yards as a barometer makes no sense. Vinny Testaverde once led the league in passing yards during an abysmal 4-12 season and Mark Brunell did as well while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. When you're behind all the time, you tend to pass more and get more passing yards while the defense lays back. 

You really need to find a different perspective.  Stafford is not perfect, but he is not bad either.  Also do the math, take out his first 2 injured years, and his next 8 years the man averages over 4600 yards/year. 

P.S.  Be careful what you wish for, you may get it.

[Vic]

He is making top 5 money with middle of the pack performance. He has a high cap hit as well. There is a point to be said about his pay/performance ratio. Regardless of what he does the Lions will need to look for his replacement within the next 1-2 off seasons and hopefully get someone to learn on the bench for a year or two.

[badnews3123]

Not that I think a volume stat like yards is a good judgment on how good a QB is, but he hasn’t averaged over 4600 yards over last 8 seasons. He averaged 4465. He actually hasn’t even thrown for 4500 yards since 2013(though he was just short in ‘17).

[badnews3123]

Sept 6, 2019 15:28:26 GMT -6 Vic said:

He is making top 5 money with middle of the pack performance. He has a high cap hit as well. There is a point to be said about his pay/performance ratio. Regardless of what he does the Lions will need to look for his replacement within the next 1-2 off seasons and hopefully get someone to learn on the bench for a year or two.

He’s not making top 5 money.

[Vic]

Google

NFL's highest-paid quarterbacks and the best-to-worst values for 2019
Matthew Stafford, Detroit: $29.5 million.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota: $29 million.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis: $27.5 million.
Tom Brady, New England: $27 million.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay: $26.5 million.
Russell Wilson, Seattle: $26.2 million.

he 10 highest-paid quarterbacks this year, according to Spotrac, are as follows:

1. Matthew Stafford, Detroit: $29.5 million
2. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota: $29 million
3. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis: $27.5 million
4. Tom Brady, New England: $27 million
5. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay: $26.5 million
6. Russell Wilson, Seattle: $26.2 million
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: $26.2 million
8. Cam Newton, Carolina: $23.2 million
9. Eli Manning, New York Giants: $23.2 million
10. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers: $23 million
By contrast, Prescott and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson are the cheapest starters entering training camp this summer. Are they still a greater value than Brady, who just led the Patriots to their sixth Super Bowl title?

Gauging a number of factors, such as 2019 cap hits — which includes base salary and bonuses — with Pro Football Focus ratings, here is how the starting quarterbacks for all 32 teams in the NFL stack up. Injury risk and what teams have added around their QBs also factored into their ranking.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
2019 cap hit: $4.4 million

PFF rating: 92.9

Value: The Chiefs will get one more year with Mahomes on his ridiculously low contract for a reigning MVP. He is slated to make $5.2 million in 2020 before hitting his fifth-year team option. Last season, as a first-year starter, Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards and a league-high 50 touchdowns. His 92.9 rating from Pro Football Focus trailed only Drew Brees among quarterbacks. The Chiefs reached last season's AFC championship, and Mahomes' contract allowed them to make major additions by trading for defensive end Frank Clark and signing safety Tyrann Mathieu.


Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes throws under pressure from Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi last season. (Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com)


2. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
2019 cap hit: $8.8 million

PFF rating: 84.3

Value: This is the last year Goff's rookie deal will be a steal. After leading the Rams to the Super Bowl, his $8.8 million tag this year balloons to $22.7 million in 2020. Seven players on the Rams make more money this year than Goff. That will soon change, as he will eclipse even All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who is making $17.1 million in 2019.

31. Matthew Stafford, Detroit
2019 cap hit: $29.5 million

PFF rating: 77.8

Value: Stafford is the most expensive quarterback in 2019, coming off a 6-10 season in Detroit. The Lions have enjoyed only four winning seasons during Stafford's 10 years as their starter. He remains a productive player, but at 31 could be dropping off. He threw for 3,777 yards and 21 touchdowns last season. It's the first time he failed to reach 4,000 yards since an injury-derailed second season in 2010. Stafford is taking up 15 percent of Detroit's salary cap.


BOOYA!

[badnews3123]

That’s for one season Vic. His contract isn’t a top 5 contract for QB’s.

[Vic]

But...but...but... bullshit

He is eating up 15% of the cap for the team. The team could do A LOT more if they had some of that freed up. For what he costs the team, his impact on the field isn't worth the price tag.

[badnews3123]

Sept 6, 2019 18:45:47 GMT -6 Vic said:

But...but...but... bullshit

He is eating up 15% of the cap for the team. The team could do A LOT more if they had some of that freed up. For what he costs the team, his impact on the field isn't worth the price tag.

It’s not but Vic, it’s a fact. You don’t base a contract being “top 5” off of 1 year. I’m sure we can go back and you were plenty critical of him in 2017. Shouldn’t you have been easier on him? Because his cap hit was 16.5 that year, which was 15th.

And the team has nearly $20 million dollars in cap space right now. After being aggressive in FA and bringing in big ticket guys. Contract isn’t holding them back.

[Blaming Brad]

badnews3123 I gotta disagree with you there. All that matters is the cap hit. Yeah, it wasn't as big of a deal a few years ago when the cap hit wasn't as big and he was playing better, but the bottom line is he has the highest cap hit in all of football this year. If he doesn't play like a top 5 QB this year they are not getting any value out of the position at all. They backloaded the contract so their window to compete was at the beginning of the contract and they missed that window.

$20M in cap space right now is just poor cap management over the years and will probably be one of the reasons they fail to make the playoffs yet again this year. It seemed like Quinn had a plan at some point but now I'm starting to wonder.

[Blaming Brad]

Sept 6, 2019 14:23:32 GMT -6 liongeezer said:

Stafford is not perfect, but he is not bad either.

I never said he was bad. He's mostly mediocre, once in a while flashes, and is wildly inconsistent. Not what you want from a guy eating up 16% of your cap.

[badnews3123]

Sept 6, 2019 19:13:51 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

badnews3123 I gotta disagree with you there. All that matters is the cap hit. Yeah, it wasn't as big of a deal a few years ago when the cap hit wasn't as big and he was playing better, but the bottom line is he has the highest cap hit in all of football this year. If he doesn't play like a top 5 QB this year they are not getting any value out of the position at all. They backloaded the contract so their window to compete was at the beginning of the contract and they missed that window.

$20M in cap space right now is just poor cap management over the years and will probably be one of the reasons they fail to make the playoffs yet again this year. It seemed like Quinn had a plan at some point but now I'm starting to wonder.

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t bitch about the overall contract in 2017(I guarantee you did)when talking about Stafford even though his hit was 15th that year and then now say only this years hit is what matters. And it makes less sense when this years hit didn’t hinder them from doing anything.

And tell me how the 20 million is poor cap management? It’s not going to disappear. It comes with them into next season.

[Blaming Brad]

Sept 6, 2019 19:20:46 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

You can’t have it both ways. You can’t bitch about the overall contract in 2017(I guarantee you did)when talking about Stafford even though his hit was 15th that year and then now say only this years hit is what matters.

I'm sure I bitched about it in 2017 as well but now it's to the point where it's dire. In 2017 it wasn't as big of a deal that he was a mid-level QB...this year it will kill them if he's not playing like a top 5-10 QB (and that's being generous).

Sept 6, 2019 19:20:46 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

And tell me how the 20 million is poor cap management? It’s not going to disappear. It comes with them into next season.

I don't know, I guess it depends what they do with it next year. With that much cap room (it's actually just under $18M) why didn't they fill some of their many holes? Maybe they could have signed someone better than Danny Amendola? There were some good interior linemen on the market, maybe they should have signed one of them? For what it's worth, I'd rather they be in the position they're in now with the cap than they were a few years ago when they had all that money tied up in Stafford, Suh and Calvin. So given that maybe it's not as dire as I think. I just have this feeling that Stafford is about to fall off the cliff a'la Joe Flacco.

[badnews3123]

If he’s a mid-level QB it’s not gonna be any different than it was in 2017. I don’t really get what you’re saying. I’d actually argue they’ll be better because I think overall roster is better this year than 2017.

As for 20 million, and that’s the number that NFLPA is using according to Field Yates. Think it was 19 and change, NFLPA site actually still has Lions at 23+. I’m still not sure how it hurts them. Your issue seems to be more with who they used it on which is an issue with the GM and coach not Stafford’s deal. You know why they signed Amendola, it’s not hard to figure out. I’m not sure what interior OL was available you wanted them chasing, I thought the market sucked there. But again in the end, the issue wasn’t they couldn’t sign them, they just chose not to. The money was there and it will be next year too.

[goldenlions]

I predict a rebound year for Stafford. This whole notion that he has to be a top 5 QB is rubbish. The team just needs to win. Not sure who you would want at QB that was gonna save all this money to get other players. Stafford's deal seems light compared to what some guys are getting and will be getting soon.

[Blaming Brad]

Sept 6, 2019 22:59:49 GMT -6 goldenlions said:

Stafford's deal seems light compared to what some guys are getting and will be getting soon.

I really don't understand this logic when he has the HIGHEST SALARY CAP HIT OF ANY PLAYER IN THE NFL.