Does anyone really think Jared Goff is the long-term answer?

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 28, 2023 13:02:59 GMT -6 Vic said:

Revisiting this thread after the season

I'd like to see the Lions draft someone to develop (not the kid from Florida please). Goff is our QB for the foreseeable near future and deservedly so.

Richardson's accuracy scares the crap out of me, but man he is intriguing.

[TRUMP]

to me it depends on how fast we can be SB contenders as to whether Goff is the long term answer. i think hes the starter the next two years and we have his replacement sitting and waiting.

[Vic]

Jan 28, 2023 13:07:46 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Jan 28, 2023 13:02:59 GMT -6 Vic said:

Revisiting this thread after the season

I'd like to see the Lions draft someone to develop (not the kid from Florida please). Goff is our QB for the foreseeable near future and deservedly so.

Richardson's accuracy scares the crap out of me, but man he is intriguing.

He will never be a good enough passer in the NFL.

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 28, 2023 19:11:12 GMT -6 Vic said:

Jan 28, 2023 13:07:46 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Richardson's accuracy scares the crap out of me, but man he is intriguing.

He will never be a good enough passer in the NFL.

Maybe, but that's what a lot of people said about Josh Allen.

[icouldblion]

Jan 28, 2023 20:27:51 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Jan 28, 2023 19:11:12 GMT -6 Vic said:

He will never be a good enough passer in the NFL.

Maybe, but that's what a lot of people said about Josh Allen.

And Jalen Hurts

[badnews3123]

Doesn’t seem to be a lot of middle ground on Goff. I think he showed enough in the second half that you don’t have to go searching for a QB, but I think there was enough issues in first half and inconsistencies in his career, that I don’t think you eliminate the option of drafting one high either.

I do worry there will be some unrealistic expectations for Goff because of that second half. That really isn’t a sustainable level of play, but I do think some fans will be expecting that. Kind of like the draft results from last year. Unrealistic to expect FO to hit like that again.

[Massa]

Jan 29, 2023 7:10:36 GMT -6 icouldblion said:

Jan 28, 2023 20:27:51 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Maybe, but that's what a lot of people said about Josh Allen.

And Jalen Hurts

I would argue they were right to a point as well...

There are a lot of voices around the league noting the apparent "drop off" from Allen since Daboll Left... Daboll may be the QB Whisperer the NFL dreams about as you can see how he turned around Danny Dimes in  New York and made him look like a QB worth a contract (he was absolutely done this year before Daboll).  And I won't even argue Hurts he is as much of a system QB as you can be. Hell Doug Peterson got kicked out of Philly because he told them as much... Hurts has 2 top - 10-15 WR's and maybe the best offensive line in football add some mobility in and of course he looks great Alex Smith, Colin Kapernick, Cam Newton, Hell Mike McMahon, read ANY even remotely mobile QB would look good in that offense....

Goff is fine for the next 2 years, but no one is gonna want to pay him what a starting QB will be making in 2 years (we already have how many QB's making 40 MIL a year???) and So I let him play out his contract and draft someone this year or next to take over. I'm not sure there is a QB I'd want this year (maybe hooker in a late late round but even then he's old, maybe a small school prospect not familiar with them). I trust BH to make a good call on this, I do worry that he likes Jared a litle too much... I don't want to sign a 30 year QB to that kind of starting money if he's not actually a top 5 QB in the league. 

[icouldblion]

Jan 29, 2023 11:03:17 GMT -6 Massa said:

Jan 29, 2023 7:10:36 GMT -6 icouldblion said:

And Jalen Hurts

I would argue they were right to a point as well...

There are a lot of voices around the league noting the apparent "drop off" from Allen since Daboll Left... Daboll may be the QB Whisperer the NFL dreams about as you can see how he turned around Danny Dimes in  New York and made him look like a QB worth a contract (he was absolutely done this year before Daboll).  And I won't even argue Hurts he is as much of a system QB as you can be. Hell Doug Peterson got kicked out of Philly because he told them as much... Hurts has 2 top - 10-15 WR's and maybe the best offensive line in football add some mobility in and of course he looks great Alex Smith, Colin Kapernick, Cam Newton, Hell Mike McMahon, read ANY even remotely mobile QB would look good in that offense....

Goff is fine for the next 2 years, but no one is gonna want to pay him what a starting QB will be making in 2 years (we already have how many QB's making 40 MIL a year???) and So I let him play out his contract and draft someone this year or next to take over. I'm not sure there is a QB I'd want this year (maybe hooker in a late late round but even then he's old, maybe a small school prospect not familiar with them). I trust BH to make a good call on this, I do worry that he likes Jared a litle too much... I don't want to sign a 30 year QB to that kind of starting money if he's not actually a top 5 QB in the league. 

Virtually every QB, including the great Tom Brady, Joe Montana, and most others, are system QB's. None of them are "all-time greats" on shitty teams or if asked to do things that don't match their strenghths.

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 29, 2023 8:49:38 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

Doesn’t seem to be a lot of middle ground on Goff.

I feel like I'm kind of in the "middle ground" with him, and that is part of the problem. Sure, you can win with him if everything around him is in place, but he's not a guy you want taking up 20% of your cap and being paid like an elite QB, which is probably what will happen if they extend him.

Jan 29, 2023 8:49:38 GMT -6 badnews3123 said:

I do worry there will be some unrealistic expectations for Goff because of that second half. That really isn’t a sustainable level of play, but I do think some fans will be expecting that.

It's not. And what happens when Ben Johnson leaves and the Lions can't afford to keep that O-line together (which ironically will be a lot harder to do if they give Goff a big contract)?

[rustyhilger]

Jan 28, 2023 13:02:59 GMT -6 Vic said:

But I fear Goff's success is tied to Ben Johnson ...

I think the entire organization is behind Goff, and they're committed to helping him succeed, as evidenced by the raise they gave Johnson. So I doubt they would try to make any major changes to the scheme or what they ask of him, etc. There's some familiarity with Mark Brunell. Tanner Engstrand has had success with some high-scoring offenses at major college programs (as coordinator and position coach), as well as coaching our tight ends.

I'm not worried in the least.

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 29, 2023 19:21:43 GMT -6 rustyhilger said:

I'm not worried in the least.

Sounds like you should be.

[rustyhilger]

Jan 29, 2023 19:24:55 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Jan 29, 2023 19:21:43 GMT -6 rustyhilger said:

I'm not worried in the least.

Sounds like you should be.

What was that supposed to mean?

[Vic]

Jan 29, 2023 7:10:36 GMT -6 icouldblion said:

Jan 28, 2023 20:27:51 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Maybe, but that's what a lot of people said about Josh Allen.

And Jalen Hurts

Hurts threw for 32 tds to 8 ints with a 70% completion percentage his last year in college.

[badnews3123]

Jan 30, 2023 11:01:06 GMT -6 Vic said:

Jan 29, 2023 7:10:36 GMT -6 icouldblion said:

And Jalen Hurts

Hurts threw for 32 tds to 8 ints with a 70% completion percentage his last year in college.

Did you watch him his first couple years? Big difference between playing in a Lincoln Riley offense and the NFL. Hurts made huge strides this year.

[Vic]

Richardson just declared for the draft, this season 17 tds 9 ints 54% completion percentage

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 30, 2023 14:54:07 GMT -6 Vic said:

Richardson just declared for the draft, this season 17 tds 9 ints 54% completion percentage

Josh Allen's last season at Wyoming - 56%, 16 TDs, 6 INTs.

[Vic]

Jan 30, 2023 15:01:15 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Jan 30, 2023 14:54:07 GMT -6 Vic said:

Richardson just declared for the draft, this season 17 tds 9 ints 54% completion percentage

Josh Allen's last season at Wyoming - 56%, 16 TDs, 6 INTs.

So you want the Lions to draft him? 

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 30, 2023 15:03:20 GMT -6 Vic said:

Jan 30, 2023 15:01:15 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Josh Allen's last season at Wyoming - 56%, 16 TDs, 6 INTs.

So you want the Lions to draft him? 

I don't know. I'm torn. Definitely not at 6. I could probably live with it at 18 with the understanding that it could end up being a completely wasted pick, but at least having the extra pick softens the blow. The upside intrigues me, and I like the fact that he can sit for a year behind Goff. I'm the first to admit I thought Josh Allen would never be a great pro.

That said, I might be more inclined to take Hooker later, but I have a feeling there will be some team enamored with him and will reach for him.

[Vic]

Jan 30, 2023 15:08:27 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Jan 30, 2023 15:03:20 GMT -6 Vic said:

So you want the Lions to draft him? 

I don't know. I'm torn. Definitely not at 6. I could probably live with it at 18 with the understanding that it could end up being a completely wasted pick, but at least having the extra pick softens the blow. The upside intrigues me, and I like the fact that he can sit for a year behind Goff. I'm the first to admit I thought Josh Allen would never be a great pro.

That said, I might be more inclined to take Hooker later, but I have a feeling there will be some team enamored with him and will reach for him.

No way you take him with any of those picks. I haven't performed youtube scouting report yet. But the kid form KY looks like an interesting project. 

[Blaming Brad]

Jan 30, 2023 15:15:10 GMT -6 Vic said:

Jan 30, 2023 15:08:27 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

I don't know. I'm torn. Definitely not at 6. I could probably live with it at 18 with the understanding that it could end up being a completely wasted pick, but at least having the extra pick softens the blow. The upside intrigues me, and I like the fact that he can sit for a year behind Goff. I'm the first to admit I thought Josh Allen would never be a great pro.

That said, I might be more inclined to take Hooker later, but I have a feeling there will be some team enamored with him and will reach for him.

No way you take him with any of those picks. I haven't performed youtube scouting report yet. But the kid form KY looks like an interesting project. 

His accuracy is scary as well. And he regressed from his junior year. I don't think he makes it out of the top 10 though. I think my dream scenario is to trade out of the #6 and get more picks making it easier to swing for the fence with one of these guys.

[badnews3123]

Jan 30, 2023 15:45:03 GMT -6 Blaming Brad said:

Jan 30, 2023 15:15:10 GMT -6 Vic said:

No way you take him with any of those picks. I haven't performed youtube scouting report yet. But the kid form KY looks like an interesting project. 

His accuracy is scary as well. And he regressed from his junior year. I don't think he makes it out of the top 10 though. I think my dream scenario is to trade out of the #6 and get more picks making it easier to swing for the fence with one of these guys.

Plus they’re in a weird spot at 6 or at least it seems so now. You’ll have a QB run and Anderson and Carter are likely gone. Have to hope one of the QB’s makes it there and Raiders are still in the market. Or Lions can do a good enough job convincing teams they are.

[littlekaps]

No QB in the first 2 rounds this year. Bryce Young? No thanks, he's gonna be 5'8 1/2" at the combine. Stroud? Great receivers at Ohio State and I their offense is basically the sideline calling the play after they are at the line. Look at Justin Fields -3300 yards, 41 TDs and 9 Ints. In the pros? He's a runner, not a passer. Levis? Way too man picks and 2:1 ratio basically. Anthony Richardson? Can't complete passes to open receivers.
Let's look at top 10 QBs the last 10 years-
2022 - Kenny Pickett, jury out
2021- Trevor Lawrence, good. Zach Wilson, bust. Trey Lance, injury prone.
2020 - Burrow, stud. Tua, good. Herbert, stud.
2019 - Kyler Murray, good. Daniel Jones, bust.
2018 - Baker Mayfield, Bust. Sam Darnold, Bust. Josh Allen, Stud. Josh Rosen, bust.
2017 - Mitch Trubisky, bust. Patrick Mahomes, stud
2016 - Jared Goff, good. Carson Wentz, bust.

Burrow, Allen and Mahomes are studs.
Lawrence, Murray and Goff are "good".
8 are basically busts.

At 6, if you can trade down to 9 (Carter and Anderson gone) or further, pick up another second rounder and grab more help for the defense. I don't need Goff to be Mahomes if I had a defense ranked better than 32. Look at the last 10 games - 8-2 and the defense played way better. AVOID QBS IN THE FIRST ROUND!!!!

[badnews3123]

I’m not advocating taking a QB in the first, but they’re in a unique position to take that chance if there is a guy there that they really want. If that’s the case, do it. The wait till next years class thing needs to stop, because that’s what is said at this time every year. People will be picking apart Williams and Maye next year and it will probably come full circle. The D needs help for sure, but if you want to support Goff for next season with that, push for aggression acquiring vets on D. Hoping for rookie impact to change the D is unrealistic to those guys. This years class created some expectations that are unfair.

[thedane]

His first year Goff started with injured and shitty and rookie WR's and an OC that sucked huge. What a fucking surprise that it didn't go well. This year in no time they're down to their #2 and #3, #1 and #4 are gone and at TE you have a legit receiver in Hock and a guy that caught 7 passes at Notre Dame and wasn't even activated until more than half way thru the 2021 season. Fast forward, injuries on the OL continue but players are holding up pretty well. Still no sign of the Round 1 pick but Chark is back and the TE group has become effective even after the trade of Hock. Now, to start this season, Goff has had time with all the WR's and Te's, RB doesn't matter much in the passing game because they're the easiest patterns in the group. Hopefully Swift is OK but at this point it's not smart to count on it.

The point is, we should finally get a clean evaluation of just what it is we have in our QB. This is a deep draft for middle of the road QB's, but that doesn't mean there aren't guys w/o ceiling. We need a backup but no need to reach here,I'm really OK waiting until the 6th and I believe there will be some decent options. I like Jaren Hall, Stetson Bennett and Adrian Martinez. Martinez is probably the most athletic and has the most ceiling even though he is likely the lowest rated. In the right system he could be really good.

They should hit the ground running this season. Add a complete OG that can block for the run and pass block and this O should be off to the races. The D, different story, need 4-5 starters and that's being generous. Hopefully the O keeps them off the field enough that they can't screw things up.

[rustyhilger]

All we really need to make a deep playoff run is just a "regular bad defense."

Meaning not "historically bad." i.e. Just "normal terrible," as opposed to "disgustingly terrible."

And I don't think that's too much to ask for in one offseason. Not unreasonable. But we shall see.