Post by Funkytown on Feb 22, 2019 19:45:23 GMT -6
BRICKWALLBLITZ - The 2018-19 Deep Ball Project
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Rest of the QBs at the link:
brickwallblitz.com/2019/02/22/the-2018-19-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/
Welcome to the fifth annual edition of The Deep Ball Project. Since 2014 I have been researching what I consider the most fascinating part of the NFL; Deep passing, and who stands out. The projects take up a lot of time, are fun to do and have even set me up with interviews about my work.
First, you can check out the 2017-18 edition of the Deep Ball Project here. With that said, let’s get to the basics.
For each new edition I like to add new stats and change things up. For this year’s edition I rehauled the distances measured and made Accuracy Percentage the main focus for this year’s Deep Ball Project. In past seasons, all qualifying throws of 16+ air yards made it onto the project. This time, however, all qualifying throws of 21+ air yards count as deep passes. I wanted to go for a more “authentic” research of deep passes which is why I went with this decision.
Like the 2017-18 edition, 35 quarterbacks were charted, with each team being represented at least once. Stats returning from the 2017-18 edition include Clean Pockets, Pressure, Open Window, Tight Window, Accurate Incompletions and Inaccurate Completions. New to this year’s edition are a number of stats that will be represented by the chart example below:
You may have noticed in black and white in the middle of the chart are all the splits for Accuracy Percentage. Not to be confused with completion percentage, Accuracy Percentage looks at if a pass is accurate or not regardless if it’s caught or dropped. And when charting downfield passes, I’ve found a lot of drops that have benefited the quarterback’s Accuracy Percentage.
In parentheses in the Accuracy Percentage splits are the rankings out of 35, representing the amount of quarterbacks charted. For example, this quarterback was the most accurate on throws into tight windows with an Accuracy Percentage of 53.13%, represented by the (1).
New stats exclusive to the 2018-19 Deep Ball Project include rehauled distances. Throws of 20-24, 25-29, 31-34, 35-39 and 40+ air yards have now been replaced with throws of 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41+ air yards. These show how many yards in the air the ball travelled before landing in a receiver’s hands or the turf. The Left, Middle, and Right statistics have also been added, of course representing the direction the pass was thrown.
Air Yards and Yards after the Catch (YAC) have also been added, and these go without explaining. Passes Defensed takes a look at any throw directly disrupted by a defender, including interceptions, pass breakups, Dropped Interceptions (also a new stat), and showing their heads on a few Accurate Incompletions. These aren’t exactly good or bad, but I thought I’d include them there to show a little more context.
Speaking of, Accurate Incompletions reward the quarterbacks with an accurate pass that couldn’t be hauled in by the receiver. These include drops, pass breakups depending on the placement, sideline throws where the receiver couldn’t get two feet in bounds, some Hail Marys, etc. Inaccurate Completions are the exact opposite, taking a look at plays where the quarterback completed a pass but forced the receiver to make an adjustment when he didn’t need to, counting as a strike on the quarterback’s Accuracy Percentage.
For this year’s edition, I also decided to add separate charts for raw statistics, including yards, touchdowns, interceptions, etc. Completion Percentage is really here just to show contrasts with Accuracy Percentage, otherwise it’s far from the most important stat in this project.
So you’re probably wondering what passes don’t count or aren’t charted? Obviously any pass thrown under a distance of 21 air yards doesn’t count, but the following are also excluded: Throwaways, passes deflected at the line of scrimmage, miscommunications, and throws offset by penalty (Plays where the penalty is declined or a penalty is tacked on after the play count and are charted).
Finally, while each quarterback is ranked out of 35 in each Accuracy Percentage split, sometimes last place is a tie between two or more quarterbacks. For example, two quarterbacks finished last in Accuracy Percentage throwing to the left, so last place in this regard is 34th. This will be reflected on each quarterback’s individual charts.
So now let’s get to the countdown. This is a three part article looking at all 35 quarterbacks charted from least accurate to most accurate. Each quarterback will have their own individual chart, a brief summary of their deep passing season, where they were at their most accurate, and a GIF highlighting their best deep pass of the 2018 season.
With that said, I now present The 2018-19 Deep Ball Project. There’s 35 quarterbacks to countdown and 1,520 throws that were charted, so it’s time to get started!
First, you can check out the 2017-18 edition of the Deep Ball Project here. With that said, let’s get to the basics.
For each new edition I like to add new stats and change things up. For this year’s edition I rehauled the distances measured and made Accuracy Percentage the main focus for this year’s Deep Ball Project. In past seasons, all qualifying throws of 16+ air yards made it onto the project. This time, however, all qualifying throws of 21+ air yards count as deep passes. I wanted to go for a more “authentic” research of deep passes which is why I went with this decision.
Like the 2017-18 edition, 35 quarterbacks were charted, with each team being represented at least once. Stats returning from the 2017-18 edition include Clean Pockets, Pressure, Open Window, Tight Window, Accurate Incompletions and Inaccurate Completions. New to this year’s edition are a number of stats that will be represented by the chart example below:
You may have noticed in black and white in the middle of the chart are all the splits for Accuracy Percentage. Not to be confused with completion percentage, Accuracy Percentage looks at if a pass is accurate or not regardless if it’s caught or dropped. And when charting downfield passes, I’ve found a lot of drops that have benefited the quarterback’s Accuracy Percentage.
In parentheses in the Accuracy Percentage splits are the rankings out of 35, representing the amount of quarterbacks charted. For example, this quarterback was the most accurate on throws into tight windows with an Accuracy Percentage of 53.13%, represented by the (1).
New stats exclusive to the 2018-19 Deep Ball Project include rehauled distances. Throws of 20-24, 25-29, 31-34, 35-39 and 40+ air yards have now been replaced with throws of 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40 and 41+ air yards. These show how many yards in the air the ball travelled before landing in a receiver’s hands or the turf. The Left, Middle, and Right statistics have also been added, of course representing the direction the pass was thrown.
Air Yards and Yards after the Catch (YAC) have also been added, and these go without explaining. Passes Defensed takes a look at any throw directly disrupted by a defender, including interceptions, pass breakups, Dropped Interceptions (also a new stat), and showing their heads on a few Accurate Incompletions. These aren’t exactly good or bad, but I thought I’d include them there to show a little more context.
Speaking of, Accurate Incompletions reward the quarterbacks with an accurate pass that couldn’t be hauled in by the receiver. These include drops, pass breakups depending on the placement, sideline throws where the receiver couldn’t get two feet in bounds, some Hail Marys, etc. Inaccurate Completions are the exact opposite, taking a look at plays where the quarterback completed a pass but forced the receiver to make an adjustment when he didn’t need to, counting as a strike on the quarterback’s Accuracy Percentage.
For this year’s edition, I also decided to add separate charts for raw statistics, including yards, touchdowns, interceptions, etc. Completion Percentage is really here just to show contrasts with Accuracy Percentage, otherwise it’s far from the most important stat in this project.
So you’re probably wondering what passes don’t count or aren’t charted? Obviously any pass thrown under a distance of 21 air yards doesn’t count, but the following are also excluded: Throwaways, passes deflected at the line of scrimmage, miscommunications, and throws offset by penalty (Plays where the penalty is declined or a penalty is tacked on after the play count and are charted).
Finally, while each quarterback is ranked out of 35 in each Accuracy Percentage split, sometimes last place is a tie between two or more quarterbacks. For example, two quarterbacks finished last in Accuracy Percentage throwing to the left, so last place in this regard is 34th. This will be reflected on each quarterback’s individual charts.
So now let’s get to the countdown. This is a three part article looking at all 35 quarterbacks charted from least accurate to most accurate. Each quarterback will have their own individual chart, a brief summary of their deep passing season, where they were at their most accurate, and a GIF highlighting their best deep pass of the 2018 season.
With that said, I now present The 2018-19 Deep Ball Project. There’s 35 quarterbacks to countdown and 1,520 throws that were charted, so it’s time to get started!
...
26. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)
The firing of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter should open up the Lions deep passing game, but it should be noted that he played a hand in Matthew Stafford’s improved statistics from 2015-17. In 2018 Stafford regressed statistically, and the offense didn’t seem all that interested in pushing the ball past the sticks on third down.
Most of Stafford’s deep accuracy numbers aren’t atrocious, but there isn’t a lot to be impressed by either. I’ve never really been a big fan of him, though I will admit he has good/great stretches of play. He was 22nd in accuracy percentage in both open windows (63.64%) and tight windows (33.33%). To be fair, almost all of Stafford’s misses into open windows came in Week 2 against the 49ers where he left three touchdowns on the field.
Injuries to Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay didn’t help either.
Stafford was at his best on throws of 26-30 yards, where he finished second in accuracy percentage (80.0%), obviously a great spot to be in. On throws to the middle he was 14th in accuracy (50.0%) so not all of his accuracy splits are bad. And perhaps the opening of the deep passing game (I hope) will benefit Stafford, but I think he has to prove it first, especially with how mixed opinions from Lions fans are on him.
Best Throw (Week 8 vs. Seattle)
This looks a little similar to the example I used for James Winston in how Stafford escapes from the pocket. On third and long Stafford wants the touchdown and he gets it with this amazing play to Marvin Jones.
The firing of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter should open up the Lions deep passing game, but it should be noted that he played a hand in Matthew Stafford’s improved statistics from 2015-17. In 2018 Stafford regressed statistically, and the offense didn’t seem all that interested in pushing the ball past the sticks on third down.
Most of Stafford’s deep accuracy numbers aren’t atrocious, but there isn’t a lot to be impressed by either. I’ve never really been a big fan of him, though I will admit he has good/great stretches of play. He was 22nd in accuracy percentage in both open windows (63.64%) and tight windows (33.33%). To be fair, almost all of Stafford’s misses into open windows came in Week 2 against the 49ers where he left three touchdowns on the field.
Injuries to Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay didn’t help either.
Stafford was at his best on throws of 26-30 yards, where he finished second in accuracy percentage (80.0%), obviously a great spot to be in. On throws to the middle he was 14th in accuracy (50.0%) so not all of his accuracy splits are bad. And perhaps the opening of the deep passing game (I hope) will benefit Stafford, but I think he has to prove it first, especially with how mixed opinions from Lions fans are on him.
Best Throw (Week 8 vs. Seattle)
This looks a little similar to the example I used for James Winston in how Stafford escapes from the pocket. On third and long Stafford wants the touchdown and he gets it with this amazing play to Marvin Jones.
Rest of the QBs at the link:
brickwallblitz.com/2019/02/22/the-2018-19-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/
