It's not just 1st rounders...it's any rookie TE. With Hockenson for his rookie year, we're probably looking at a ceiling of Heath Miller (40ish receptions, 500ish yards, 5-6 TDs). I have to assume they drafted him knowing they won't see much benefit until year 3 or 4, which is really ballzy considering they more than likely won't be around to reap any of it.
there's more to the TE position than just getting yards and TDs. But yeah, there's a reason they don't go in the first round very much, value just isn't there.
Last Edit: May 3, 2019 5:21:44 GMT -6 by goldenlions
Ravens 34 552 16.2 74 3 TD's 3 game starts. They drafted Hurst in the first and still took Andrews in the 3rd, AFTER we took Walker BTW. It means they got over 700 yards out of the TE position last year with 2 rookies and that doesn't include any of their other TE's.
Ravens 34 552 16.2 74 3 TD's 3 game starts. They drafted Hurst in the first and still took Andrews in the 3rd, AFTER we took Walker BTW. It means they got over 700 yards out of the TE position last year with 2 rookies and that doesn't include any of their other TE's.
I like Andrews. I was very surprised they took him after taking Hurst. Without looking at the game by game, I do wonder if Andrews benefited from Lamar Jackson and his inability to throw downfield.
I have done a little research on how Darrell Bevell uses quality TEs based on Jimmy Graham. While Graham was a New Orleans Saint I included the years between 2011 to 2014. I discarded his rookie year as developmental because it skewed his real capability over the next 4 years.
Saints From 2011 to 2014, Graham averaged nearly 89 catches and 1100 yards/year (12.4 Yards/Rec.) under Sean Payton's offense with Drew Brees as QB. Drew Brees averaged 41 pass attempts/game during this time. The Saints averaged 25 rushing attempts/game during this time. Prior to Graham the Saints offense from 2006 to 2009, ranked an average of 1.75 out 32 teams. Saints offense with Jimmy Graham from 2011 to 2014, ranked an average 2 of 32 teams.
I would like to add that the Saints record prior to Jimmy Graham from 2006 to 2009 was 38 wins and 26 losses. The Saints record from 2011 to 2014 was 38 wins and 26 losses even though Jimmy Grahams receiving output was approximately twice that of TEs used during 2006 to 2009.
Conclusion: Jimmy Graham had no effect on the Saints Offensive ranking. Saints had the same win/loss record with or without Jimmy Graham. I contribute these results to a HOF QB and Sean Payton's ability to get the maximum production out of the players available. IOW the TE position in itself did not improve the team. Seahawks From 2015 to 2017, Jimmy Graham averaged 57 catches and 683 yards/year (12 yards/Rec.) under Darrell Bevell's offense with Russell Wilson as QB. Russell Wilson averaged 33 pass attempts/game during this time. The Seahawks averaged 27.4 rushing attempts/game during this time. Seahawks offense from 2012 to 2014 ranked an average of 15 out of 32 teams. Seahawks offense with Jimmy Graham from 2015 to 2017 ranked an average of 9 out of 32 teams
Prior to Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks record from 2012 to 2014 was 36 wins and 12 losses. The Seahawks record with Jimmy Graham from 2015 to 2017 was 29 wins 18 losses and 1 tie.
Conclusion: Jimmy Graham definitely improved Darrell Bevell's offensive ranking during his time in Seattle. However, the Seahawks record declined during Graham's tenure. I believe the decline was due to the loss of Marshawn Lynch, the Defense aging, and losing key members. IOW the improvement in the offense did not compensate for loss of rushing and defense.
Detroit These results tell me that Darrell Bevell's offensive scheme will not maximize Hockenson's receiving talent (Graham only had 62% of his Saints receiving output in Bevell's scheme). Hockenson will be asked to block NFL caliber DE and LB players. I have concerns due to Hockenson's poor performance on the bench press = 17 reps and his 32 inch arms. He does not have the upper body strength, nor the reach, to block NFL caliber players and will lose more than he wins at least this first year. It will probably take at least a year of NFL weight training for him to compete and be used properly in Bevell's scheme. Hockenson is no doubt the best TE prospect in this draft, but his value will be low if Bevell uses the run first scheme he has shown in the past. I really wish Quinn would have taken the trade down.
Last Edit: May 3, 2019 11:12:10 GMT -6 by liongeezer
Eh, maybe yes, maybe no. Just having an NFL caliber player at TE puts us ahead of last year and in this scheme he can do well. He may well lose more than he wins initially, but I think by mid season he'll be OK. I wish we would have traded down as well but it is what it is. Hock struggled against Miss St in IOWA's bowl game, but to be fair they had one of the top ranked D's in college football last year. Miss St had 3 total sacks, Sweat had .5 sack, Simmons had 1, Abram had .5, Gay had .5 and Rivers had .5, that's a whole group of guys who are going to be or are in the pro's now. I like the 12, if I were the Lions I would get some film of how IOWA used it with Fant on the field with Hock, pretty successful.
Eh, maybe yes, maybe no. Just having an NFL caliber player at TE puts us ahead of last year and in this scheme he can do well. He may well lose more than he wins initially, but I think by mid season he'll be OK. I wish we would have traded down as well but it is what it is. Hock struggled against Miss St in IOWA's bowl game, but to be fair they had one of the top ranked D's in college football last year. Miss St had 3 total sacks, Sweat had .5 sack, Simmons had 1, Abram had .5, Gay had .5 and Rivers had .5, that's a whole group of guys who are going to be or are in the pro's now. I like the 12, if I were the Lions I would get some film of how IOWA used it with Fant on the field with Hock, pretty successful.
With Hockenson I don't see the Lions running the 12 formation that much because he is a fantastic receiver with more game speed than his 4.7 sec 40 time indicates. He runs stride for stride on film against major college DBs who normally run a 4.5 sec 40 time and they don't catch him. He has soft hands to catch the football with less than a 2 percent drop rate. He has gronk like body control that walls DBs from passes that only he can catch. His explosion, change of direction, and agility are outstanding for human 6'5" and 250 pounds. IOW he could play in the slot against DBs and beat them badly either thru quickness or by his sheer size. Hockenson is not your grunt type blocking TE that goes straight up against DEs and LBs.. He does not have the upper body strength nor the reach.
Bevell need to use this kid as a receiver first and as a blocker second maybe even third. Hockenson is a mismatch in coverage for all LBs so you force the defense to cover him with a DB. I see Hockenson lined up with 3 WR, and RB. Place Hockenson in motion a majority of the time to give him the blocking angle during runs or force LBs or DBs to chase him across the formation if in man to man.
My bitch about Bevell above is that he did not throw to Jimmy Graham enough.
Last Edit: May 3, 2019 13:59:04 GMT -6 by liongeezer
Have you ever watched Hockenson? I can't remember him ever being used as a motion receiver.
He needs to be. If you look at Kelce and Gronk they both have long arms 33 and 7/8" and 34 and 1/8" respectively, both were strong on the bench and capable of handling DEs straight up blocking. Both had 4.6 40 time but were faster on tape. In fact, KC and NE would use these guys in the slot or use motion to create mismatches. Hockenson is just as fast but much quicker, so motion and the slot is the best way to use his receiving and blocking ability.
Lance Zeierlein compares Hockenson to Kelce but I disagree. I think he closer to Evan Engram not as good long speed, equal change of direction and agility. better hands, route runner, and blocker
Strengths
Competitive and athletic
Bursts upfield from stance finding early separation in seam
Long stride into one-step cut to uncover underneath
Fluid and fast in intermediate and deep work
Runs leveraged, sharp routes and stacks tight coverage
Accelerates out of cuts and turns to separate
Intelligent use of frame to shield the catch point
Able to create late-catch space and secure with sticky hands
Above-average catch radius and secures through contact
Punches with crisp, inside hands as blocker
Runs feet through contact as move blocker
Sustains and finishes blocks when he gets locked in
Weaknesses
Narrow, athletic frame needs additional muscle mass
Can work away from zone defender to help quarterback
High-point attempts can be slightly mistimed
Gets in a big hurry as run blocker
Early over-step loses desired block centering
Comes in hot up to second-level targets
Needs better anticipation/adjustment to moving targets
Could struggle to maintain reasonable anchor in pass pro
Most of his weak areas are as a in line blocker. Needs additional muscle mass. Gronk and Kelce already had man strength as TE with solid upper body mass.
Last Edit: May 3, 2019 14:41:20 GMT -6 by liongeezer
Have you ever watched Hockenson? I can't remember him ever being used as a motion receiver.
Yeah, the reason Hockenson is so well regarded and Lions were willing to pick him at 8 is how well rounded he is and his ability to play in-line. He definitely has the athleticism to be used in slot, but it would be a waste of his talent to not have him in line and take advantage of his blocking ability and the ability to create more mis-matches.
Have you ever watched Hockenson? I can't remember him ever being used as a motion receiver.
Yeah, the reason Hockenson is so well regarded and Lions were willing to pick him at 8 is how well rounded he is and his ability to play in-line. He definitely has the athleticism to be used in slot, but it would be a waste of his talent to not have him in line and take advantage of his blocking ability and the ability to create more mis-matches.
Have you watched TJ Hockenson's blocking highlights. All of the kids that he is pancaking in the highlights are freshman and sophomores with half being DBs weighing less than 200 lbs. The other half are 230 to 240 lb DEs, OLBs that are not haired over yet. So there is a big difference between blocking children and playing inline and straight up against 6'4" 265 lb. men with 34 inch arms that have the strength to lift twice their weight. NFL Big boys will rag doll his ass. He is not going to be a good blocking TE in the NFL until he gets a lot stronger.
Last Edit: May 4, 2019 5:09:26 GMT -6 by liongeezer
I believe the Lions will carry 4 TEs on the roster this year. Hockenson will be a TE/WR, but the Lions will carry 3 more conventional TEs. UDFA Parnham from Stetson is going to be interesting to see what he can do.
I am calling; TJ Hockenson WR/TE Jesse James TE Blocker Michael Roberts TE Blocker Donald Parnham (maybe) His play strength will be the main factor. WR/TE Isaac Nauta TE/Hback blocker.
Last Edit: May 4, 2019 6:44:03 GMT -6 by liongeezer
Yeah, the reason Hockenson is so well regarded and Lions were willing to pick him at 8 is how well rounded he is and his ability to play in-line. He definitely has the athleticism to be used in slot, but it would be a waste of his talent to not have him in line and take advantage of his blocking ability and the ability to create more mis-matches.
Have you watched TJ Hockenson's blocking highlights. All of the kids that he is pancaking in the highlights are freshman and sophomores with half being DBs weighing less than 200 lbs. The other half are 230 to 240 lb DEs, OLBs that are not haired over yet. So there is a big difference between blocking children and playing inline and straight up against 6'4" 265 lb. men with 34 inch arms that have the strength to lift twice their weight. NFL Big boys will rag doll his ass. He is not going to be a good blocking TE in the NFL until he gets a lot stronger.
I believe the Lions will carry 4 TEs on the roster this year. Hockenson will be a TE/WR, but the Lions will carry 3 more conventional TEs. UDFA Parnham from Stetson is going to be interesting to see what he can do.
I am calling; TJ Hockenson WR/TE Jesse James TE Blocker Michael Roberts TE Blocker Donald Parnham (maybe) His play strength will be the main factor. WR/TE Isaac Nauta TE/Hback blocker.
Well, that's 5 TE's. I think Roberts is odd man out.
I believe the Lions will carry 4 TEs on the roster this year. Hockenson will be a TE/WR, but the Lions will carry 3 more conventional TEs. UDFA Parnham from Stetson is going to be interesting to see what he can do.
I am calling; TJ Hockenson WR/TE Jesse James TE Blocker Michael Roberts TE Blocker Donald Parnham (maybe) His play strength will be the main factor. WR/TE Isaac Nauta TE/Hback blocker.
Well, that's 5 TE's. I think Roberts is odd man out.
Sorry Dane I did not finish my thoughts in this post. As of right now Parnham is grouped in the TE category and that is why I mentioned him, but I believe Parnham would be better served as a slot WR. From everything I have read he is not a good blocker, but is a very good receiver (has excellent hands). Also Isaac Nauta is such a versatile player that he could be used as an inline TE or as an HBack/fullback type player. He could supplant Bawdin and open up another roster spot. Training camp will be interesting, and I can't wait to see how the Lions use these players.
As far as Roberts, I think he puts it together and becomes consistent. He has a lot of talent with excellent size.
Last Edit: May 5, 2019 5:55:17 GMT -6 by liongeezer
Roberts has a reception percentage of just over 48%. Not sure if that's on him, Stafford or both. He's REALLY going to need to step it up. About the only thing he has going for him is that he was a Quin pick.
Roberts has a reception percentage of just over 48%. Not sure if that's on him, Stafford or both. He's REALLY going to need to step it up. About the only thing he has going for him is that he was a Quin pick.
Agreed
Last Edit: May 6, 2019 5:08:46 GMT -6 by liongeezer
With Hockenson for his rookie year, we're probably looking at a ceiling of Heath Miller (40ish receptions, 500ish yards, 5-6 TDs).
Hockenson season over. Finishes with 32/367/2 in 12 games which works out to 42/489/3 over 16 games. Pretty much what I expected. Although a little disconcerting is 35% of those yards came in the first game (against an Arizona team that is currently by far the worst against the TE in the NFL).