Post by icouldblion on Nov 22, 2022 11:44:58 GMT -6
Line: Buffalo by 9.5 O/U 54
Buffalo comes into this game at 7-3, but are 1-2 in their last 3 games, including losses @nyjets and at home vs Minnesota. They are 2nd overall in scoring on the season at 28.1 pts/gm, though they are scoring 10 more pts/gm at home (34) than they are on the road (24.2). They have the 2nd ranked offense in league at at 417.4 yds/gm, but have struggled over their past 3 games throwing the ball. Their 3rd ranked passing offense has been merely average over the past 3 weeks, averaging nearly 60 yds/gm less than their season average, ranking only 14th over that time. Josh Allen has been uncharacteristically turnover prone during this stretch, throwing the 2nd most interceptions in the league (6) during the past 4-games. Allen was surprisingly pedestrian against Cleveland this past Sunday with under 200 yds passing, and only 7 rushing yds on 3 attempts. While he did not throw an interception (breaking a 3-game streak of 2 interception games), he appears to be struggling to find his rhythm. However, he continues to be a running threat, as he has accounted for 1/3 of Buffalo's rushing yds on the season. Stefon Diggs has proven to be nearly uncoverable at WR, and is on pace for 129 receptions and 1,750 yds, totaling 2.5x as many receptions as anyone else on the team.
On defense, Buffalo's scoring defense ranks 5th in the league at 17.4 pts/gm, but have given up 25.3 pts/gm over their past 3 games, 24th in the league over that period, and having given up the 4th most yards/gm (395.7) in that same 3-game stretch. They have a stout run defense, ranked 8th in the league on the season, but teams have had success in the past 3 weeks, averaging 133.7 yds/gm, 20th over that time. Their pass defense is opportunistic, leading the league in interceptions, while ranking 12th in sacks. However, they can be thrown on, ranking 20th in passing yds allowed on the season, and 29th over the past 3 games. They are middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate allowed at 40%.
The Lions enter the game riding a 3-game winning streak, and feeling invincible right about now. The offense is clicking behind a solid running game and enough passing to keep the sticks moving. The offensive line is keeping Goff clean and creating holes for whichever back is on the field (though Swift seems unwilling to hit those holes...). The defense has shown improvement every week, but will miss Okudah this week, which is a big blow to an already thin defensive backfield.
The Lions may be catching the Bills at just the right time, as Allen is on the injury report with a right elbow injury, which may be contributing to his struggles over the past 4 games. However, we once again face a running QB, with no evidence we have any solution (even Daniel Jones was able to drop 50 yds on us). Lane discipline will be very important, something our young d-line has struggled with all season. Given Buffalo's struggles in pass defense, this would have been an excellent time for JaWill to make his debut, as the passing game can use all the weapons it can get.
I see an old fashioned shoot-out in store for Turkey Day. I'm taking the over, for sure. This is a great test for the Lions, but ultimately I think Josh Allen's scrambling ability will prove to be too much, and our defense will struggle to get off the field. Goff and the offense will have to be perfect to keep pace, but Buffalo's ability to apply pressure on Goff will result in at least one bad pick and maybe more, giving Buffalo extra possessions. Hopefully the crowd can provide enough energy to keep the Bills offense in check, but I'm doubtful. Plus, there's no way I'm breaking my streak of picking against the Lions at this point.
Buffalo 37
Lions 31
Buffalo comes into this game at 7-3, but are 1-2 in their last 3 games, including losses @nyjets and at home vs Minnesota. They are 2nd overall in scoring on the season at 28.1 pts/gm, though they are scoring 10 more pts/gm at home (34) than they are on the road (24.2). They have the 2nd ranked offense in league at at 417.4 yds/gm, but have struggled over their past 3 games throwing the ball. Their 3rd ranked passing offense has been merely average over the past 3 weeks, averaging nearly 60 yds/gm less than their season average, ranking only 14th over that time. Josh Allen has been uncharacteristically turnover prone during this stretch, throwing the 2nd most interceptions in the league (6) during the past 4-games. Allen was surprisingly pedestrian against Cleveland this past Sunday with under 200 yds passing, and only 7 rushing yds on 3 attempts. While he did not throw an interception (breaking a 3-game streak of 2 interception games), he appears to be struggling to find his rhythm. However, he continues to be a running threat, as he has accounted for 1/3 of Buffalo's rushing yds on the season. Stefon Diggs has proven to be nearly uncoverable at WR, and is on pace for 129 receptions and 1,750 yds, totaling 2.5x as many receptions as anyone else on the team.
On defense, Buffalo's scoring defense ranks 5th in the league at 17.4 pts/gm, but have given up 25.3 pts/gm over their past 3 games, 24th in the league over that period, and having given up the 4th most yards/gm (395.7) in that same 3-game stretch. They have a stout run defense, ranked 8th in the league on the season, but teams have had success in the past 3 weeks, averaging 133.7 yds/gm, 20th over that time. Their pass defense is opportunistic, leading the league in interceptions, while ranking 12th in sacks. However, they can be thrown on, ranking 20th in passing yds allowed on the season, and 29th over the past 3 games. They are middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate allowed at 40%.
The Lions enter the game riding a 3-game winning streak, and feeling invincible right about now. The offense is clicking behind a solid running game and enough passing to keep the sticks moving. The offensive line is keeping Goff clean and creating holes for whichever back is on the field (though Swift seems unwilling to hit those holes...). The defense has shown improvement every week, but will miss Okudah this week, which is a big blow to an already thin defensive backfield.
The Lions may be catching the Bills at just the right time, as Allen is on the injury report with a right elbow injury, which may be contributing to his struggles over the past 4 games. However, we once again face a running QB, with no evidence we have any solution (even Daniel Jones was able to drop 50 yds on us). Lane discipline will be very important, something our young d-line has struggled with all season. Given Buffalo's struggles in pass defense, this would have been an excellent time for JaWill to make his debut, as the passing game can use all the weapons it can get.
I see an old fashioned shoot-out in store for Turkey Day. I'm taking the over, for sure. This is a great test for the Lions, but ultimately I think Josh Allen's scrambling ability will prove to be too much, and our defense will struggle to get off the field. Goff and the offense will have to be perfect to keep pace, but Buffalo's ability to apply pressure on Goff will result in at least one bad pick and maybe more, giving Buffalo extra possessions. Hopefully the crowd can provide enough energy to keep the Bills offense in check, but I'm doubtful. Plus, there's no way I'm breaking my streak of picking against the Lions at this point.
Buffalo 37
Lions 31
