Post by icouldblion on Nov 10, 2022 15:06:27 GMT -6
Current line: Chicago -2.5
Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 in a row. They currently have the No. 1 rushing offense in the league, averaging 195.4 yds/gm. Their 5.4 yds/carry ranks 2nd in the league. However, this rushing ranking is primarly because Fields prefers to scramble rather than pass the ball. Their passing game is dead last in the league at a paltry 125.7 yds/gm. They have struggled to score, averaging just under 21 pts/gm which comes in ranked 21st in the league. Much of Fields' struggles have come because they cannot protect him. Only the Colts have allowed more sacks than the 33 the Bears ave allowed. When he has had time to complete passes, he has been successful, averaging 7.1 yds/attempt.
On defense, they are only slightly better than Detroit at stopping the run, allowing 147.2 yds/game, 30th in the league. In fact, in most statistical defensive categories the Bears look a lot like the Lions this year, except they are able to stop the pass, only allowing 200.7 yds/gm, good enough for 10th overall. They only have 13 sacks on the season, and are allowing 3rd down conversions at a 43.4% clip, 29th in the league. If it comes down to a kicking game, the Bears hold a clear advantage, with the top ranked kicking game in the league. Santos is currently 17 for 17 on FG attempts. Chicago currently has a +1 turnover ratio on the season.
Detroit comes in fresh of the victory over GB. We currently have the 7th ranked offense in the league averaging 377.3 yds/gm, and the 12th ranked scoring offense at 23.5 pts/gm. Of course, this game will be on the road/outdoors, where we are only averaging 10 pts/gm in 3 games this year. On defense, even with the impressive(?) showing against GB, we still rank at or near the bottom in every measurable statistic, including dead last in total yds/gm allowed (417.3), pts/gm allowed (29.3), passing yds/attempt (8.1), 3rd down % allowed (51%), and we are tied for 30th in total sacks (12).
Personally, I'm not convinced last week's win was as much a result of great defensive play as it was Rodgers just completely laying an egg. If Rodgers has an even average type day, we lose last week by two scores. It's not because we were constantly pressuring him. He just missed a lot of open receivers.
Our history of struggles against scrambling QB's means no 3rd down distance will be safe in this game. I'm not sure we have anyone on the defensive side of the ball with the speed to spy Fields. However, Chicago's defensive struggles combined with the gut-punch to the team of trading Robert Quinn mean there is a real opportunity to score some points in the windy city this weekend. Glad we are catching the Bears now before Claypool has a chance to get comfortable in the offensive scheme. This is a tough one to call, but I think it comes down to the kicking game, where Chicago has a clear advantage.
Lions 24
Bears 26
Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 in a row. They currently have the No. 1 rushing offense in the league, averaging 195.4 yds/gm. Their 5.4 yds/carry ranks 2nd in the league. However, this rushing ranking is primarly because Fields prefers to scramble rather than pass the ball. Their passing game is dead last in the league at a paltry 125.7 yds/gm. They have struggled to score, averaging just under 21 pts/gm which comes in ranked 21st in the league. Much of Fields' struggles have come because they cannot protect him. Only the Colts have allowed more sacks than the 33 the Bears ave allowed. When he has had time to complete passes, he has been successful, averaging 7.1 yds/attempt.
On defense, they are only slightly better than Detroit at stopping the run, allowing 147.2 yds/game, 30th in the league. In fact, in most statistical defensive categories the Bears look a lot like the Lions this year, except they are able to stop the pass, only allowing 200.7 yds/gm, good enough for 10th overall. They only have 13 sacks on the season, and are allowing 3rd down conversions at a 43.4% clip, 29th in the league. If it comes down to a kicking game, the Bears hold a clear advantage, with the top ranked kicking game in the league. Santos is currently 17 for 17 on FG attempts. Chicago currently has a +1 turnover ratio on the season.
Detroit comes in fresh of the victory over GB. We currently have the 7th ranked offense in the league averaging 377.3 yds/gm, and the 12th ranked scoring offense at 23.5 pts/gm. Of course, this game will be on the road/outdoors, where we are only averaging 10 pts/gm in 3 games this year. On defense, even with the impressive(?) showing against GB, we still rank at or near the bottom in every measurable statistic, including dead last in total yds/gm allowed (417.3), pts/gm allowed (29.3), passing yds/attempt (8.1), 3rd down % allowed (51%), and we are tied for 30th in total sacks (12).
Personally, I'm not convinced last week's win was as much a result of great defensive play as it was Rodgers just completely laying an egg. If Rodgers has an even average type day, we lose last week by two scores. It's not because we were constantly pressuring him. He just missed a lot of open receivers.
Our history of struggles against scrambling QB's means no 3rd down distance will be safe in this game. I'm not sure we have anyone on the defensive side of the ball with the speed to spy Fields. However, Chicago's defensive struggles combined with the gut-punch to the team of trading Robert Quinn mean there is a real opportunity to score some points in the windy city this weekend. Glad we are catching the Bears now before Claypool has a chance to get comfortable in the offensive scheme. This is a tough one to call, but I think it comes down to the kicking game, where Chicago has a clear advantage.
Lions 24
Bears 26